2025 Newbuilding Record: The Spectre of Overcapacity Returns

The global container ship orderbook has hit 11.61 million TEU, representing nearly 35% of the existing fleet, after carriers set a new record for orders in 2025, raising serious concerns about supply overcapacity over the next four years.

new-container-ships-are-being-built

According to the latest data from market researcher Linerlytica, the global container ship orderbook has climbed to 11.61 million TEU, accounting for 34.8% of the total existing fleet. This impressive figure was driven by a record-breaking contracting wave throughout 2025.

Recent additional orders from industry giants COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd have pushed the total number of container ships ordered in 2025 to 633 vessels, corresponding to a total capacity of 5.08 million TEU. This figure has officially shattered previous records of 4.74 million TEU (in 2021) and 4.77 million TEU (in 2024).

Warnings of Supply Overcapacity

In its latest "Market Pulse" report, Linerlytica explained that carriers' appetite for new vessels has far exceeded fleet renewal needs, reviving haunting fears of over-supply in the coming four years.

Regarding shipbuilding market share, despite U.S. threats against the Chinese shipbuilding industry, shipyards in the Asian powerhouse still captured the lion's share of contracts this year, securing 497 units (79%) and 3.66 million TEU (72%). Meanwhile, South Korean shipyards have regained some lost ground, with their capacity market share rising from 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, adding 1.35 million TEU this year.

Market Volatility and 2026 Outlook

Market volatility remains persistent. Following failed rate hikes in early December, carriers are pushing another round of increases in mid-December with mixed success.

Looking ahead to 2026, Premier Alliance carriers announced their service network will include two additional Transpacific PSW (Pacific Southwest) loops and an upgraded Asia-North Europe loop starting in April. Notably, the alliance will maintain routings via the Cape of Good Hope instead of returning to the Suez Canal until further notice.

Details of Billion-Dollar Deals

Hapag-Lloyd Invests $500 Million: German carrier Hapag-Lloyd recently signed an order worth over $500 million with Chinese shipyard CIMC Raffles. The Hamburg-based carrier has ordered eight 4,500 TEU container ships, with delivery scheduled for 2028 and 2029.

COSCO's "Historic" Deal: Meanwhile, China COSCO Shipping Corporation has sealed a mega-contract for 87 new vessels, which industry insiders have dubbed "historic."

COSCO Shipping is strengthening its fleet through a new partnership agreement with the China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC). This domestic deal, valued at approximately RMB 50 billion, covers 87 new vessels across multiple fleet segments, as the shipping giant races to modernize its fleet and consolidate its global position.

The contract was signed in Shanghai on December 8, 2025. The construction work will be undertaken by CSSC subsidiaries and includes a diverse range of vessel types: ultra-large container ships, large bulk carriers, VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers), grain carriers, multi-purpose heavy-lift vessels, MR (Medium Range) tankers, small container ships, and others.

See more: