Air Cargo Takes ‘Wait-and-See’ Approach to US Tariffs and Positive Demand Outlook for 2025

Air cargo industry experts are closely monitoring the potential impact of US tariffs and are cautiously optimistic about demand in 2025.

air cargo

Source: Maersk

The air cargo industry is taking a “wait-and-see” approach to the potential impact of new US tariffs and stricter regulatory requirements for e-commerce shipments.

At the Tiaca Air Cargo Forum industry leaders’ session, panelists were asked their opinions on how the implementation of tougher tariffs from the new US president would impact that market.

Tiaca CEO Glynn Hughes pointed out that during the campaign, Trump had suggested that he would implement a 60% tariff on all imports from China and 10-20% for goods from other countries.

Meanwhile, there are also expectations that the US will introduce tighter controls on e-commerce goods imported under “de minimis” exemptions, which means goods worth $800 or less are not subject to tariffs and are subject to fewer customs checks.

DB Schenker’s executive vice president of global air freight, Asok Kumar, said the tariffs would have an impact on the industry, as shippers rush to move goods before the new tariffs are implemented.

“I’m not an economist but imposing 20% tariff on goods outside of China and 60% on goods from China, logically it would have an impact,” he said. “It has been done before but we didn’t see the impact as wide ranging as we were expecting so we will have to wait and see.

“What I do think might happen is that there is a possibility that shippers may try to rush goods in advance of any such imposition which means we might have a busy couple of months.

“So far, I haven’t heard anything from our customers about doing that. And as far as de minimis is concerned, the Chinese e-commerce players have consistently said they are prepared for this and they have solutions.

“So the impact of that in terms of e-commerce goods in terms of stifling it, we are preparing for that to not happen.”

Jan Krems, president of United Cargo, said the industry needs to be flexible in the face of any tariffs.

“Goods still have to be made and still have to be shipped to the US. The tariffs and rates, how that will work with e-commerce and on other products, we don’t know, but it will happen for sure, that’s what [Trump] says.

“But we will have to wait and see how much it will be and how it has an effect on us.”

Dirk Goovaerts, president of global freight at Swissport International, agreed that air freight needs to be flexible in the face of any changes.

He added that while one market may fall as a result, another may rise. Meanwhile, there is also the possibility that production could shift away from China.

“In our industry we have to be agile and adapt and see the trends relatively quickly and then move on,” he said.

The panelists were also asked about the situation in 2024 and their outlook for 2025.

Krems said the year had started better than expected due to a modal shift from sea to air due to problems at the Panama Canal and shipping lines taking longer to reach Europe due to missile attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

Looking ahead, he predicted a “fantastic” start to 2025 as demand remains strong and the airline continues to add services from China, although United will continue to lag the 15 flights per day it offered pre-Covid.

Kumar said the year has been busy but perhaps the peak has not been as high as expected.

“Based on that we were expecting an exceptional peak season, I would call it a busy peak season but not exceptional. Disappointing is a bit too strong to sum up the peak season, but expectations did not come to fruition.”

He added that he was “cautiously optimistic” for 2025 but added that capacity could tighten again.

“When I look at 2025 I’m cautiously optimistic,” he said. “The supply situation will continue to hamper us so let’s see what will happen on the demand side. And if the supply situation continues to hamper us, it could be a tough year ahead in terms of capacity management and yield.”

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