Asia-Europe Container Shipping Enters 2026: Seasonal Bounce Meets Lingering Structural Uncertainty

The Asia-Europe container freight market kicks off 2026 with strong momentum driven by pre-Lunar New Year demand, pushing North Europe rates to $2,700/FEU. However, experts warn this is merely a cyclical recovery, with the post-holiday outlook still clouded by Red Sea uncertainties.

Asia-Europe-Container-Shipping-Enters-2026

Asia-Europe container shipping enters 2026 (Image: Phaata)

The Asia-Europe container shipping market has entered 2026 on firmer footing following sharp volatility in late 2025. Seasonal demand ahead of the Lunar New Year combined with the delayed implementation of General Rate Increases (GRI) pushed spot rates higher in early January.

However, market participants continue to view this rally as cyclical rather than structural, with caution still surrounding post-holiday demand and capacity normalization.

Rates Continue to Rise in Early January

As of January 9, Platts Container Rate 1 (PCR1) and PCR11 - North Asia to North Europe and the UK - were assessed at $2,700/FEU, extending the upward trend from late December as general rate increases continued to permeate the Freight All Kinds (FAK) market.

Meanwhile, the Mediterranean market cooled slightly after overshooting GRI targets, with Platts Container Rate 3 (PCR3) dropping $200 to $4,200/FEU. Despite this, the route maintains a significant premium over North Europe.

Commenting on the driving force behind the hikes, a freight forwarder noted: “Rates moved because they had to, not because demand suddenly exploded.”

Price Momentum: Recovery from October Lows

The strength seen in late Q4 and early Q1 represents a decisive reversal from early October, when rates had fallen to unsustainable levels. On October 2, PCR1 and PCR11 were assessed at just $1,300/FEU, before rising steadily through successive GRI cycles and space scarcity to hit $2,700/FEU by January 9.

This $1,400/FEU increase, representing a 108% jump, highlights the scale of the recovery from the market floor rather than evidence of truly tight supply. Late December marked a turning point after several failed GRI rounds in early Q4. With pre-Lunar New Year cargo moving earlier than usual and carriers maintaining blank sailings, spot rates firmed by year-end and carried that momentum into the first week of January.

Mediterranean Premium Remains Intact

Despite the $200 drop, PCR3 continues to trade at a premium of over $1,500/FEU above North Europe. Carriers cite limited routing options, heavier reliance on transshipment, and selective space allocation as reasons why this region remains structurally firmer.

The Mediterranean region saw a sharper spike in late December, but resistance emerged as carrier targets pushed beyond market acceptance.

A market participant commented: “GRI ambition in the Med ran ahead of reality. That’s why it corrected, not because the market collapsed.”

Cargo rolling and tighter space were reported on several westbound services in early January, reinforcing the resilience of the spread even as absolute levels adjusted.

Long-Term Confidence Out of Sync with Spot Market

Long-term sentiment remains cautious. The Platts Long-term Container Rate 1 (PLCR1) held flat at a broad $1,700/FEU, underscoring the disconnect between the short-term spot rally and confidence in 2026 contracts.

Persistent overcapacity, minimal vessel scrapping, and uncertainty surrounding route normalization continue to cap long-term optimism.

Red Sea Signals: More Uncertainty, Not Clarity

Maersk vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait in late December were seen as symbolic rather than a signal of imminent network shifts. The carrier emphasized that the voyage was just a first step, with no timetable for a widespread return to the Suez route.

Market participants agree that any widespread resumption would likely cause short-term congestion and operational disruption before exerting downward pressure on rates.

A forwarder source shared: “It wouldn’t crash the market first – it would jam it.”

Outlook: January Supported, Post-CNY Correction Risks

Looking ahead, the general consensus suggests market conditions will remain firm throughout January, supported by seasonal demand and capacity management. However, post-Lunar New Year sentiment shifts to the defensive.

A forwarder noted: “January holds; February is the question. Everything after that depends on discipline.”

Ultimately, carriers' willingness to maintain capacity discipline - rather than demand growth - will determine whether the early 2026 rate gains can be sustained.

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