Asia-Europe freight rate rally stalls amid port congestion and mixed market signals

Asia-Europe freight rate rally stalled amid mixed signals, as port congestion risks increased and transpacific rates continued to trend lower.

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The recent surge in Asia-North Europe container rates appears to have stalled – at least for now – as spot rates show signs of cooling across key indices.

The Drewry World Container Index (WCI) recorded a 2% weekly decline on the Shanghai-Rotterdam trade, bringing rates down to $3,384 per 40ft container and ending a six-week streak of increases. Other indices painted a more mixed picture: SCFI held steady at $3,996 per 40ft container, while Xeneta’s XSI was at $3,393. However, Freightos’ FBX index stood out, rising 14%, taking its Asia-North Europe rate to $3,522.

One forwarder described market prices as largely flat, noting that some premium carriers had cut rates slightly to stay competitive. “Space is relatively easy to get—even in the run-up to peak season,” he added. “Aside from Xiamen, where space is tighter, most shipments are moving without major issues.”

But the market may not be quiet for long. Xeneta’s head of analytics Peter Sand warned that spot rates could soon rise again due to worsening congestion at northern European ports. “This disruption is expected to persist throughout the rest of 2025,” he said. Carriers have begun to change service routes and skip ports of call to manage delays – moves that could add complexity and costs for shippers.

While rates on the Asia-North Europe trade have stabilized, rates on the Asia-Mediterranean trade have fallen sharply. Drewry’s WCI index shows a 7% weekly drop on the Shanghai-Genoa trade, to $3,491 per 40ft container. Some forwarders report that rates to the Mediterranean have now fallen below those to North Europe for the first time in years.

Meanwhile, rates on the Asia-North America trade continue to trend downward, although the declines are less severe than in recent weeks. The WCI shows Shanghai-Los Angeles down 8% to $2,931 per 40ft container, while Shanghai-New York is down 5% to $4,839.

Mr. Sand noted that tariff uncertainty is distorting market behavior, especially on the trans-Pacific trades. “Geopolitical shifts have scrambled the usual freight rate patterns,” he said. Spot rates to the US West Coast have fallen 51% in just over a month. With pre-paid consolidation activity declining and new tariffs looming, Mr. Sand predicts rates to the US East Coast will soon fall faster than rates to the West Coast, potentially narrowing the gap to less than $1,000 by the end of July.

Finally, the trans-Atlantic market has given up some of its recent gains. Spot rates on the Rotterdam-New York trade fell 6% to $1,990 per 40-foot container, returning to levels seen two weeks ago.

The current outlook reflects a container market in a state of flux, where congestion, changing shipping capacity and geopolitical pressures continue to challenge predictability on global shipping routes.

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