Asia-U.S. Container Rates Face Heavy Downward Pressure for Second Half of the Year

Following a period of massive front-loading by U.S. retailers ahead of tariffs, import volumes are forecast to fall sharply in the final months of 2025, creating heavy downward pressure on Asia-U.S. container rates.

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According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, a near-record volume peak this past summer indicates that U.S. retailers stockpiled as many goods as possible ahead of tariff hikes. As a consequence, import demand in the coming months is projected to fall sharply, putting pressure on ocean freight rates.

"But the uncertainty of US trade policy is making it impossible to make the long-term plans that are critical to future business success," said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, also argued that tariffs have had a significant impact on trade, contributing to a pessimistic outlook for the rest of the year.

A Sharp Volume Decline Forecasted Through Year-End

Data shows that July volumes increased by 20% over June as retailers rushed to import goods before tariffs took effect in August. However, the Global Port Tracker forecasts a continuous year-over-year decline in volumes for the coming months:

• September: Forecast at 2.12 million TEU, a 6.8% decrease.

• October: Forecast at 1.95 million TEU, a 13.2% decrease.

• November: Forecast at 1.74 million TEU, a 19.7% decrease.

• December: Forecast at 1.70 million TEU, a 20.1% decrease, marking the slowest month since March 2023.

The NRF noted that, in addition to the tariff factor, the year-over-year decline is also due to this year's earlier peak season and the fact that import volumes at the end of 2024 were already high due to fears of port strikes.

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Credit: ICIS

Rates Plunge, Rate Hike Efforts Prove Unsustainable

Container rates from Asia to the U.S. have been falling steadily since mid-June. Although data from Drewry shows a slight uptick last week due to the partial success of the September 1 General Rate Increase (GRI), the consultancy believes this rate level is unlikely to be sustainable unless carriers cut more capacity.

Two container shipping indices in Asia also show a downward trend on this route:

• Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI): Fell 6.8% from the previous week. Exports to North America weakened after a GRI in the prior week prompted some large shipments, but carriers did not tighten capacity, causing spot rates to fall slightly.

• Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI): Rose for the first time in 12 weeks for the week ending September 5, likely due to the temporary impact of the rate hikes.

container-rate-from-freightos-and-Drewry

Credit: ICIS

Impact on the Chemical Industry

Trends in container shipping and freight costs are closely linked to the chemical industry. Although most chemicals are in liquid form and transported by tankers, container ships move polymers like polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in pellet form. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) and liquid chemicals in isotanks are also shipped via container.

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