Container Freight Rates Jump 88% as Shippers Seize U.S.-China Tariff Delay

The U.S.-China tariff delay has sparked a shipping frenzy, sending rates soaring on the Trans-Pacific, but experts say this is only a temporary phenomenon.

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Container Shipping

It took just a week for the frenzy to grip the Eastbound Trans-Pacific.

According to analyst Xeneta, the average high-end spot rate (75th percentile of the market) that shippers pay for shipping from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast has jumped a staggering 88% since May 3, now standing at $6,100 per 40-foot unit (FEU). The price increase reflects the willingness of shippers to absorb higher costs to keep cargo moving, fueled by a temporary window of opportunity created by the suspension of reciprocal tariffs between the United States and China.

Over the same period, the average freight rate from the Far East to the US West Coast increased from $2,615 to $5,082 per FEU.

The average spot rate from Northern Europe to the US East Coast also increased to $2,129 from $2,081 last week.

The 90-day suspension of higher tariffs has prompted carriers such as Cosco, Evergreen, Hapag-Lloyd and HMM to sharply increase spot rates, with increases pushing as high as $3,000 per FEU, Xeneta said.

Meanwhile, high-end spot rates have also climbed 67% from the Far East to the US East Coast, reaching $7,180 per TEU in early June, as a number of companies try to accelerate shipments amid the volatile trade environment. Far East to US West Coast rates are $6,100 per TEU.

However, the price action is not limited to the Trans-Pacific. High-end rates on the Far East-North Europe trade have also been on an upward trend, up 32% since late May and currently stand at $2,704 per TEU. Notably, this increase comes despite the four-week moving average of capacity on the trade route reaching 346,000 TEU as of June 5, a level unseen even at the height of the COVID-19 shipping frenzy.

“The 88% increase in market mid-high spot rates on the trans-Pacific trade shows shippers are so concerned about getting goods moving again during the 90-day window of opportunity of lower tariffs that they are willing to pay more,” Xeneta’s Chief Analyst Peter Sand said in a note. “Right now, it seems carriers are telling shippers to jump, and some are replying, ‘How high?’.”

Sand said the spike is only temporary. As capacity returns to the Trans-Pacific, the shipping frenzy is expected to subside. As supply chains gradually recover and inventories build, pricing pressure will ease. Sand predicted that spot rates will peak in June before falling as capacity constraints ease.

The trade disruptions are also having a ripple effect on other trade lanes, such as the Far East to Northern Europe. While only indirectly affected by the US-China tariff situation, the route is still feeling the impact of global supply chain uncertainty. “What happens in one region can quickly ripple across global supply chains,” Sand said. The threat of increased capacity pressures, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, is enough to push up spot rates even in these far-flung markets.

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