Container Rates Hit 9-Month Low, Ceasefire Lifts Red Sea Outlook

Spot container freight rates on the main east-west trades have recorded another week of slight declines amidst subdued activity from China's Golden Week holiday. However, a potential ceasefire agreement in the Red Sea could be poised to reshape the entire market.

port-of-long-beach

Port of Long Beach

Despite workers beginning to return to their posts yesterday, freight rates have continued their downward trend. Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) fell for the 17th consecutive week, reaching a level not seen since January 2024.

At that time, facing a similar picture of uncertain demand and industry-wide overcapacity, carriers' balance sheets were rescued by the Red Sea crisis, which absorbed an estimated 14% of global capacity virtually overnight.

Yesterday, however, the region took its first tentative steps toward peace with a ceasefire agreement, raising the prospect of a widespread resumption of transits through the Suez Canal. According to financial analysts speaking to Reuters, Maersk's share price hit a three-month low yesterday following the news.

On the WCI, the Rotterdam-Shanghai route fell 2% week-on-week to close at $1,577 per 40ft container, now 56% lower than the same period last year. Meanwhile, the Shanghai-Genoa lane lost 1%, dropping to $1,793 per 40ft, a 53% year-on-year decrease.

This marks the ninth straight week of declining spot rates on Asia-Europe routes and has prompted several carriers to schedule new FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates for October 15.

CMA CGM joined MSC and Hapag-Lloyd in issuing new FAK levels for its Asia-Mediterranean services, also set for October 15. Specifically, shipments from Asia to the West Mediterranean are priced at $2,300 per TEU and $2,900 per 40ft; to Adriatic ports at $2,500 per TEU and $3,100 per 40ft; and to East Mediterranean destinations at $1,900 per TEU and $2,900 per 40ft.

One forwarder on the trade noted to The Loadstar that the planned rate hikes coincide with a series of blanked sailings aimed at cutting capacity.

“Due to continuous blanked sailings, capacity is expected to be tight throughout October – rate increases are expected by mid-October, which is dependent on resumption of production post-holidays in China.”

On the transpacific routes, the WCI's Shanghai-Los Angeles rate lost 1% from the previous week, finishing at $2,176 per 40ft—approximately 57% lower than the same time last year—while the Shanghai-New York lane remained unchanged at $3,189 per 40ft.

Although there is a sense that the downward momentum is slowing, Freightos' head analyst, Judah Levine, suggested that spot rates on both the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades will likely remain weak until the end of the year.

“With Golden Week behind us and peak season over for both the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades, a demand lull is likely to take hold on these lanes until the lead-up to Chinese New Year in January,” he said.

One glimmer of hope for the carriers—though certainly not for their customers—is the re-emergence of severe port congestion at Northern Europe's largest ports. This is primarily due to a 48-hour strike by container lashing workers at Rotterdam's terminals this week, as well as job actions by maritime pilots in Antwerp and Zeebrugge.

All of this could tie up a significant amount of capacity and, when combined with the carriers' new FAK rate increases, create a short-term rate spike.

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