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Wednesday, 26/01/2022, 08:14 (GMT +7)
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Container shipping lines' profit forecast can reach 200 billion USD in 2022: Drewry
Although demand growth is slowing, Drewry has raised projected profits for container lines in 2021 to $190 billion and even higher in 2022.
Container shipping rates hit a record high
Container shipping margins are continuing to climb to new highs, and Drewry noted in his latest Container Shipping Forecasts report that for the third quarter of 2021, the container shipping industry's EBIT was $70.9 billion, “a staggering nine-fold improvement” over the previous year.
From the Q3 earnings numbers, the total profit for the first nine months of 2021 for the sector has increased sharply, with EBIT reaching $136.5 billion. This prompted Drewry to raise his full-year forecast to $190 billion from $150 billion previously.
Looking to 2022, Drewry said a combination of rising inflation, ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and the Omicron Covid-19 variant threatens to slow growth in port handling and as a result the port throughput growth forecast for 2022 has been downgraded to 4.6% from 5.2% previously.
Simon Heaney, Senior Director of Container Research at Drewry, commented: “We think that 3Q21 probably represents the peak quarterly earnings for carriers, but that quarterly results in 2022 will stay on a more even keel that will average out slightly higher.”
Drewry's EBIT estimate for container shipping in 2022 is $200 billion, about $10 billion more than 2021, with a profit margin of 37%.
“The smoother earnings forecast rationale stems from a pivot away from the volatile (and likely retreating) spot market towards longer-term contracts that are expected to be signed at much higher levels in upcoming negotiations,” Heaney said.
Drewry notes that shipping lines will have plenty of spare cash to pay debts, pay dividends to shareholders and pursue growth opportunities. According to a report by Seatrade Maritime News, last year, carriers ordered a record 548 ships with a capacity of 4.2 million TEUs.
Shipping lines have also spent billions of dollars on acquisitions in the logistics and supply chain sectors.
“The pandemic and ensuing supply chain crisis is the primary driver of the supercharged carrier profits and share price bonanza. In simple terms, the longer the congestion lasts, the longer that freight rates and carrier profits will stay extremely high.”
Read more:
- Container freight rates for Asia-US West Coast routes spike before Lunar New Year
- International container freight rates in 2022 'will be higher than ever before'
- Global supply chain bottlenecks due to lack of containers still remain
- Maersk's Q4 2021 business results exceeded expectations as freight rates increased by 80%
- Port congestion getting worse as entering 2022 - Sea-Intel
- Global supply chain disruption expected through 2022
- When will supply chain disruptions and exorbitant freight rates end?
Source: Phaata.com (According to SeatradeMaritimes)
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