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Forecast of container shipping market share change as the 2M alliance break-up
On the Transpacific route, Maersk will be the smallest of the major carriers and alliances. MSC will be in a stronger position than Maersk, but still slightly smaller than THE Alliance, and Ocean Alliance will have an extremely strong position in the market.
2M Alliance will end in January 2025 (Photo: Phaata)
The announcement of the breakup of the 2M alliance will inevitably lead to a change in carrier competition on deep-sea routes. While the official breakup won't happen until January 2025, gradual changes are possible over the 2-year transition period.
Assuming that the remaining two alliances (Ocean Alliance and THE Alliance) remain intact and new orders are delivered on time, changes in capacity market share with a mere split of 2M on the Transpacific route will look like the figure below.
Before we dive into the analysis, however, the supply of new vessels is not simply a matter of capacity replenishment, as leased vessels will be returned, old vessels will be scrapped, and so on.
Therefore, Sea-Intelligence chose to create a baseline based on the very simple assumption that carriers will generally take on new ships and, regardless of the size of these vessels, will allocate capacity internally between all of their global shipping routes, in such a way that the end result will be a uniform growth in capacity across their entire operated network.
Using this baseline, across the entire transpacific route, Maersk would clearly be the smallest of the major carriers and alliances. MSC will be in a stronger position than Maersk, but still slightly smaller than THE Alliance, and Ocean Alliance will have an extremely strong position in the market.
On the Asia-Europe route, we see essentially the same situation as on the trans-Pacific, except that the small carriers play a very small role on this route.
Read more:
- Maersk and MSC to end 2M Alliance in 2025
- 2M Alliance announces service changes on Transpacific route
Source: Phaata.com (According to Sea-Intelligence)
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