Global air freight trends Week 17 (2025) by WorldACD

Global air freight volumes increased 6% YoY in April, while China-US routes face the risk of a sharp decline due to new tariffs and the end of ‘de minimis’ duty exemptions.

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Preliminary figures for April show that global air freight volumes increased +6% YoY, driven mainly by a +10% increase from the Asia-Pacific region, as US importers adjusted to major changes in US-China trade policy.

According to the latest data from WorldACD, chargeable weights increased YoY in April across most major global origin regions – with the exception of the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) region, where volumes remained flat. Specifically, Asia-Pacific increased by +10%, Central & South America (CSA) increased by +7%, North America increased by +5%, Africa increased by +3%, and Europe increased by +2%.

The +6% increase in April followed the +4% increase in March and +2% in Q1/2025, bringing the total increase in the first 4 months of the year to +3% compared to the same period in 2024. However, compared to March, April shipping volume decreased in most regions, except for CSA with an increase of +16% compared to the previous month (MoM). Other regions such as Europe (-10%), MESA (-12%), North America (-7%) and Asia-Pacific (-5%) all decreased.

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The average global price in April reached USD 2.43/kg (including spot and contract prices), remaining stable compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Notable year-over-year changes included a +7% increase from Africa and a -14% decline from MESA, where rates were pushed higher last year due to disruptions in the Red Sea.

Amid global market uncertainty and the impending end of the ‘de minimis’ tariff exemption for Chinese imports to the US on May 2, volumes remained stable in the final week of April (week 17, April 21–27). CSA volumes increased sharply by +19% week-over-week (WoW) on the back of Mother’s Day floral demand. Other bright spots included MESA volumes up +4% WoW (and YoY), and Asia-Pacific volumes up +3% WoW, bringing total volumes from the region to +6% YoY in April. However, the average freight rate from the Asia-Pacific region in week 17 decreased slightly by -1% WoW, down -1% year-on-year.

China-US Movement

Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific continued to decrease slightly by -2% WoW in week 17, to USD 3.67/kg, but were still +3% higher than the same period last year. After four consecutive weeks of declining volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US, week 17 recorded a slight recovery: +1% WoW from China and Hong Kong, +3% from the entire Asia-Pacific region. However, compared to week 17 last year, the volume from China and Hong Kong to the US was still -15% lower. Spot rates from China and Hong Kong to the US, after rising for seven consecutive weeks and peaking at $5.63/kg, have fallen for two consecutive weeks to $4.18/kg in week 17 – a sign that “pre-loading” has ended. In contrast, the market and rates from Asia-Pacific to Europe have been stable around $4/kg for the past two months, including the China-Europe route.

Further volatility forecast

The end of the ‘de minimis’ duty-free policy from 2 May for imports from China and Hong Kong is expected to lead to a sharp decline in demand and air freight capacity on this route. Some carriers may reroute aircraft to other routes, creating large fluctuations in volumes, capacity and rates in the coming weeks.

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