Global Tanker Market Forecast 2026

Tim Smith, an expert from MSI, assesses that the tanker market enters 2026 on a solid footing driven by geopolitical instability and surging oil production. However, the wave of newbuilding deliveries commencing this year could exert pressure to reverse market trends in the 2027–2028 period.

Global-Tanker-Market-Forecast-2026

(Photo: Phaata)

In the latest exchange on the Seatrade Maritime Podcast, analyst Tim Smith from Maritime Strategies International (MSI) assessed that the oil transport industry is entering 2026 in an extremely strong position.

To understand the current momentum, we must look back at the landscape of 2025. The tanker market started last year on a lower earnings baseline compared to 2024, yet conditions remained relatively favorable for both crude and product segments. However, the real turning point arrived in Q2 when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to boost production.

Mr. Smith explained: “We saw oil production increasing from OPEC, by a very strong amount, perhaps around 2 million barrels per day across the second half of the year. And that really injected some upside into trade volumes for particularly for the crude sector, alongside this America's production increasing as well.”

Additionally, geopolitical instability and increased sanctioning activity - particularly with the US becoming more active in sanctioning oil activities and infrastructure - pushed the market to a climax by year-end.

Mr. Smith emphasized: “In Q4 we really saw this manifest in terms of very strong conditions for the tanker sector, particularly larger crude tankers on the spot side and VLCCs in Q4, 2025 were earning north of $100,000 a day.”

On the fleet supply side, the low number of newbuildings delivered in 2025 also supported the market by limiting additional capacity.

2026: Complex Variables

The strong finish to 2025 serves as a major springboard for this year. Mr. Smith noted: “The tanker sector comes into 2026 on a very strong footing. And also, of course we are seeing those geopolitical elements, that kind of turbulence continue with, US actions in and around Venezuela, through December and of course into January 2026.”

The geopolitical situation remains a top concern in the early stages of this year.

“Those moving parts on a geopolitical perspective don’t appear to be slowing down. And I think we're seeing more and more fracturing of geopolitical norms, certainly more interventionist policy from the US which adds to other ongoing areas of turmoil.”

With tankers being seized and attacks on vessels involving Russia and Ukraine, Mr. Smith described that “the tanker sector is literally under attack.” Added to this are US measures and sanctions against Iran alongside the risk of potential conflict.

Viewing the situation purely from a market perspective, Mr. Smith stated: “These typically tend to be positive elements in driving up of course uncertainty, energy security and tanker earnings when we see more and more geopolitical turmoil.”

However, the potential downside of high production is that it is outpacing relatively muted oil demand growth.

“We're seeing that buildup of stockpiling as well in 2026 that potentially has some pitfalls for the market for the tanker sector later on if conditions become oversupplied and we start to see a pullback in production.”

The Wave of Newbuildings Begins to Land

Regarding tonnage supply, the MSI expert warned: “We're going to start to see deliveries increasing for tankers this year and they're going to stay high through the next few years.”

This is driven by high newbuilding order volumes in 2024 and 2025, with strong contracts for large crude tankers like Suezmaxes and VLCCs in the second half of 2025.

Mr. Smith concluded: “So, all of that new tonnage is going to come through into the market and start to add a bit more of that fleet side pressure on earnings conditions that hasn't been there for a few years.”

MSI maintains a positive outlook for 2026, but the market could begin to reverse during the 2027–2028 period as new vessel supply accumulates.

See more: