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Wednesday, 16/07/2025, 16:52 (GMT +7)
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Global trade resilient to policy shifts and geo-economic risks
A new Unctad report finds that global trade growth remains robust in the first half of 2025, but the outlook for the second half remains uncertain due to tariff and macroeconomic risks..webp)
Trade growth in the first half of 2025 has been positive, despite heightened trade policy uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical tensions and a challenging global economic environment.
That’s according to the latest Global Trade Update from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad), which reports that global trade trends have continued their gradual upward trajectory starting in the second half of 2023.
The study finds that both goods and services trade have shown consistent growth in recent quarters, driven largely by strong performance by developing countries.
However, in Q1 2025, developed economies outpaced developing countries in trade growth, driven largely by a surge in US imports ahead of expected tariff hikes and strong exports from the European Union.
Forecasts for Q2 2025 suggest continued growth in both goods and services trade. Preliminary data show that Chinese exports remained resilient in April and May, driven by increased intra-regional trade and trade with Africa. US exports also increased in April. However, imports into the US fell sharply from the previous quarter, reflecting the impact of newly imposed tariffs and unusually high import volumes in Q1 as businesses rushed to bring goods home ahead of tariff hikes.
The report warns that the continued resilience of trade in the second half of 2025 will depend heavily on policy clarity, geo-economic developments, and the resilience of supply chains.
On the downside, global economic growth is forecast to slow in many regions, suggesting that international trade could face slower growth. Furthermore, the prospect of higher tariffs in the United States – and the risk of broader trade conflicts – pose significant downside risks.
A negative signal also comes from China’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which typically reflects weakening manufacturing activity and can signal weaker import demand and weaker export orders. However, the study suggests that growing regional integration could provide some support for global trade.
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