IATA: Air Cargo Demand Continued to Grow in September

The latest data from IATA shows that global air cargo demand grew by 2.9% in September 2025, but behind this figure is a reshaping of trade flows due to U.S. tariff policy, with a decline on the Transpacific route.

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Air cargo demand saw its seventh consecutive month of improvement in September, despite the ongoing decline on the Asia-North America trade lane. This demonstrates the market's resilience, bolstered by strong growth on Intra-Asia and Asia-Europe routes.

According to the latest data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), increased by 2.9% year-on-year in September. Meanwhile, offered capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), rose by 3%, and the cargo load factor was flat year-on-year at 45.7%.

Although demand grew, the pace of growth slowed compared to August's 4.1% and was lower than the 3.2% improvement recorded in the first nine months of the year.

IATA said: “This result, however, does not offset the resilient performance of the market seen in recent months, which has benefited from a modal shift and front-loading. This result demonstrates resilience, especially considering the suspension of small parcel shipping to the US by most postal services worldwide as they adjust to the end of the de minimis exception.”

Regionally, Asia-Pacific airlines posted a 6.8% year-on-year increase, while North American carriers declined by 1.2%.

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Source: IATA

The Reshaping of Trade Patterns

Amid the continued overall demand growth, there has been a distinct shift away from the Asia-North America trade lane due to U.S. tariff policies.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh said: “Air cargo demand grew 2.9% year-on-year in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of overall growth. Buried in that growth is a significant alteration of trade patterns as US tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions, kick in.”

“On one side of the equation, a decline in North America-Asia demand has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. While many had feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands.”

The trade lane data demonstrates the shift away from the Transpacific:

• Asia-North America demand in September fell 3.5% year-on-year.

• Asia-Europe demand grew by 12.4%.

• Intra-Asia demand increased by 10%.

• Africa-Asia demand improved by 9.6%.

As for trade indicators, IATA said global goods trade grew by 3.7% in August, and global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in September, with the PMI index rising for the second consecutive month. However, new export orders remained below the expansion threshold, "reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty."

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