IATA: Air Cargo Growth Stalled in June 2025 Amid U.S. Trade Tensions

A new IATA report shows global air cargo growth flattened in June 2025 due to trade tensions, with a stark divergence: North America saw a sharp decline while Asia-Pacific continued to grow.

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Air Freight Cargo (Photo: Shutterstock-Phaata)

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that global air cargo industry growth nearly stalled in June 2025, as a resurgence in trade uncertainty, driven by a new wave of tariffs introduced by the U.S. under President Donald Trump, weighed heavily on demand.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by just 0.8% compared to June 2024. International operations saw a slightly higher increase of 1.6% year-on-year. Available cargo capacity (ACTKs) increased by 1.7%, and by 2.8% for international services.

"Overall, air cargo demand grew by a modest 0.8% year-on-year in June, but there are very differing stories behind that number for the industry’s major players," said Willie Walsh, IATA's Director General.

Trade Tensions Impact North America

The sharpest decline was recorded in North America, where airlines saw freight traffic fall by 8.3%. This drop reflects the growing uncertainty surrounding tariff and counter-tariff measures between the U.S. and its key trading partners.

European carriers registered flat growth of 0.8%, also impacted by global trade tensions. In contrast, Asia-Pacific airlines posted a robust expansion of 9.0%, benefiting from relatively stable regional demand.

In the Middle East, cargo volumes fell by 3.2% as conflict-related disruptions continue to affect operations.

"The June air cargo data made it very clear that stability and predictability are essential supports for trade," said Walsh. "Emerging clarity on US tariffs allows businesses greater confidence in planning. But we cannot overlook the fact that the ‘deals’ being struck are resulting in significantly higher tariffs on goods imported into the US than we had just a few months ago. The economic damage of these cost barriers to trade remains to be seen."

Recovery in Fuel Prices and Production

Despite weak demand growth, some underlying indicators show resilience in the broader economic context. Global industrial production grew by 3.2% in May, and goods trade increased by 3.5% year-on-year.

Jet fuel prices in June were 12% lower than a year ago, marking the fourth consecutive month of year-on-year decline. However, prices rose by 8.6% compared to May, indicating some volatility.

The manufacturing sector also showed signs of recovery. The global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.2, returning above the growth threshold. However, the export orders component, despite improving by 1.2 points, remained in contraction territory at 49.3, reflecting ongoing pressure from shifting U.S. trade policy.

"In the meantime, governments should redouble efforts to make trade facilitation simpler, faster, cheaper and more secure with digitalization," Walsh added.

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