Imports to the US increased in March but may decline due to impact of tariffs, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence

Imports to the US continued to increase in the first quarter of 2025, but S&P Global Market Intelligence warned that new tariffs and weak demand could cause a decline in turnover from the second quarter.

Container ships at the Port of Long Beach, US (Photo: Gcaptain/Phaata)

According to new data released by S&P Global Market Intelligence, the volume of imported goods into the US in March recorded positive growth.

Specifically, the total volume of imported goods in March reached 2.75 million TEU (20-foot equivalent units), up 10.2% compared to the same period last year, marking the 19th consecutive quarter of growth. In the first quarter, the total import volume reached 8.14 million TEU, up 9.1% compared to the previous year. However, S&P noted that the year-over-year comparisons were “understated” due to 2024 being a leap year and February 2025 having only 28 days.

Consumer goods were the main driver of March’s gains, rising 17.9% year-over-year (excluding autos).

Specifically, household furnishings rose 23.3%, appliances rose 14.4%, and consumer staples rose 14.0%. Notably, pharmaceuticals rose 17.3%, possibly related to the potential for Section 232 tariffs to be considered.

Entertainment products and toys also rose 8.4% and 5.6%, respectively.

Consumer goods with long life cycles – less affected by fashion or technology trends – continued to lead the growth, thanks to their long-term storage capacity.

S&P Global Market Intelligence also said that the growth in consumer staples partly reflected the impact of new tariffs as well as hedging against future tax risks.

In industrial goods, the gains were uneven: raw materials increased 15.2%, driven by a 22.3% increase in chemicals; while capital equipment increased 7.2%, driven by lower volumes of electronic components and electrical equipment.

S&P noted that production and shipping decisions for peak seasons are typically made in the second quarter – with shipments typically peaking in October in the 2016–2019 period. However, in 2024, September was the peak month due to concerns about port strikes. 2025 could be different, as expectations of tariff reduction agreements could delay decisions.

Looking ahead, S&P forecasts that imports into the U.S. could decline in the coming quarters, given the weakening fundamentals of consumer and industrial demand. Specifically, U.S. container imports are forecast to decline 3.0% in the second quarter and continue to decline sharply, reaching 4.9% in the third quarter. At the same time, factors such as freight rate fluctuations, changes in shipping alliances, and the possibility of new port fees will further complicate decision-making.

Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said that in the context of supply chain instability, lack of predictability, and pressure from tariffs, businesses should consider flexible response strategies.

"Part one is, bring in what you can while you can, and part two is, pass through what you can," he said. “Can you convince your suppliers to take a bit of a hit? The retailers tried that in China and got a bit of a slap on the wrists from the Chinese government. Increase your customer prices is another one.

Companies don't like to do that too often, so that's why we're starting to see some of these slightly innovative approaches, like tariff surcharges and being very transparent and saying, “it costs us an extra $20 to bring it into the country. You're going have to pay that because we still have to make money selling you stuff.””

Rogers said that many companies were now accelerating imports in the second quarter – so the figures may be slightly inflated – but the trend is clear. “But that 10% tariff is still there, and ultimately shipping times are six-to-eight weeks. If you go expedited, you have to get it out of the building, and you have to be advising the factory straight away. Peak Season decisions for back to school are being made right now. The Peak Season decisions for toys and stuff are being made in the next couple of months. The companies with large amounts of imports have almost got more certainty in their planning because they know it's going to be huge. The problem is if you're importing from Vietnam or Mexico or wherever, you just don't know, as there might be a change.”

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