Select service type

Monday, 30/06/2025, 08:51 (GMT +7)

477

International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 26/2025 | Phaata

Phaata International Logistics Marketplace updates the international container shipping and logistics market for routes from Asia to North America, Europe... in Week 26/2025 (June 23 to June 29, 2025).

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 26/2025

Download International Logistics Market Update Report Week 25 here

1. World Container Index Week 26/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline sharply for the second consecutive week, falling 9% to $2,983/FEU in week 26/2025 (June 23 to June 29, 2025). This was largely due to a sharp decline in demand for cargoes to the United States; and this suggests that the recent surge in imports into the United States (which occurred after the suspension of high US tariffs) has not had a lasting impact.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 26/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America market in Week 26 (June 23 to June 29, 2025) paints a clear picture of a market in the process of a sharp downward adjustment. The early wave of cargo shipments has changed the demand structure of the traditional peak season, and now, shipping lines are taking proactive actions to prevent price declines and stabilize the market.

Supply and demand:

- On the Demand Side: The peak season has come early and ended early

This is the main phenomenon shaping the current market. Due to strong demand and a wave of shipping in May and June to avoid tariff risks, Phaata has seen weaker than expected bookings for the traditional peak season in July and August. The current market is no longer a homogeneous trend but can be described as “mixed”, depending on the strategy of each specific importer.

- Supply Side: Shipping Lines Take Action to Prevent Decline

In response to the signal of slowing demand, shipping lines have begun to act strategically:

- Proactively Reducing Capacity: This is the most important development. Shipping lines have begun to reduce capacity for July. While this action is not enough to immediately address the potential overcapacity, it shows a clear strategy.

- Capacity Management: After several weeks of continuous decline, the rate of blank sailings seems to have stabilized to a certain extent. This suggests that carriers have found a new threshold for capacity management that is appropriate for the current environment, rather than continuing to bring vessels back in droves.

Container Situation

Container supply remains adequate at most ports of origin. Shortages are not a concern at this time.

Freight Rates: Widespread Decline

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in the week of June 26, 2025 (June 23 to June 29, 2025) fell sharply by 25.58% compared to the previous week, to USD 3,122/FEU. This price is up 4.48% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The downward pressure on prices continues, but there are signs of finding a new level:

- West Coast: Floating rates continue to cool down and are approaching fixed prices under long-term contracts.

- East Coast & Gulf: Similarly, freight rates here have also cooled down rapidly and are approaching fixed prices. The price difference between the two coasts is narrowing.

- Peak Season Surcharge (PSS): PSS for June 15 is also continuing to decrease in line with the market trend on both coasts.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 26/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 26 marks a significant date when the US’s tightening traceability and tariff expansion policies officially take effect. At the same time, the silence from the White House on extending the tariff suspension policies is creating a highly uncertain environment, requiring businesses to have emergency contingency plans.

1- Tightening Policies Officially Take Effect

200% Tariff on Aluminum of Unknown Origin (Effective June 28):

- Regulation: According to the announcement of the US Customs and Border Protection (CBP), from June 28, 2025, shipments of aluminum and derivative products with unidentified or unidentifiable smelting and casting countries will be subject to Section 232 tariffs of up to 200% (equivalent to the tariff imposed on aluminum from Russia).

- Analysis: This is a drastic measure to combat tax evasion and puts the entire burden of proof on importers. Aluminum importers must ensure that they have full traceability documents or they will face huge financial risks. The new process requires declaring “unspecified” and paying a 200% tax, unlike the previous proposal.

Section 232 Tax Extension to Steel Consumer Goods (Effective June 23):

- Implementation: This provision is now in effect. Items such as washing machines, refrigerators, dishwashers and other steel consumer appliances are now subject to Section 232 tax.

- Important note: The 50% tax rate only applies to the value of the steel content in each product, not to the total value of the product. Importers should work with manufacturers to obtain accurate figures for customs declarations. Steel and aluminium from the UK remain exempt from the 50% tariff and are subject to a 25% tariff.

2- Uncertainty Reaches Its Peak - The Future of Reciprocal Tariffs

This is the biggest concern for importers at the moment.

The July 9 deadline is fast approaching:

- The 90-day suspension of country-by-country reciprocal tariffs is set to expire in less than two weeks.

- The silence is worrying: Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent previously said an extension was "very likely", the Trump administration has not made any further comments or official announcements on the matter since then. This silence is creating great uncertainty and insecurity for the business community.

The future of tariffs with the EU and China:

- EU: The proposed 50% tariff is still on hold until July 9, and negotiations are ongoing.

- China: The roadmap remains unchanged. Goods will continue to be subject to a 10% reciprocal tariff until August 11. After that, the future depends entirely on whether the US-China trade deal announced on June 11 is approved. If approved, the reciprocal tariff will be 10% (out of a total of 55%). If not, it will revert to 34%.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 26 (June 23-June 29, 2025) is sinking deeper into an operational crisis. The issues are not being resolved but are compounding, creating a vicious cycle of delays and shortages. All signs point to the market approaching a tipping point, which is expected to hit by the end of July, both in terms of disruptions and shipping costs.

On supply and demand: The Vicious Cycle of Disruption

Supply continues to be squeezed by a domino effect:

- Early July cancellations: The fact that carriers, especially the Premier Alliance, are implementing blank sailings in early July is directly reducing available capacity.

- Delays: This is the most dangerous factor. Congestion at European ports is causing vessels to return to Asia later than expected. This in turn raises the risk of more July sailings being cancelled or port omissions due to a lack of vessels in the right place at the right time.

Direct consequence: This tightening of supply has led to an increasing rate of rollovers, creating a large backlog of cargo at Asian ports.

Peak forecast: As the traditional peak season heats up, demand from nervous shippers will combine with limited supply, which is forecast to push both actual demand and spot rates to their highest levels in late July.

Freight Rates:

Asia to Europe freight rates for the week of 26/2025 edged up 1.77% week-on-week to $2,872/FEU. This represents a 54.24% increase month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

The operational chaos is being directly reflected in freight rates:

- July rates are published at very high levels: Shipping lines are publishing rates for July with significant differences. Notably, the highest GRI from Maersk is quoted at USD 4,300/FEU, a reference figure that shows the level of market tension.

- Market expectations: Experts and market participants are widely predicting that July rates will mark the peak of the spot market this year.

- Root cause: The price increase is the inevitable result of the prolonged space shortage and equipment shortage, which are caused by the operational issues analyzed above.

Geopolitical Risks and Fuel Costs

Impact from the Middle East: Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel continue to create a short-term "risk premium" on shipping routes. Although the direct impact on container vessels on the Asia-North Europe trade is limited (as vessels have diverted around the Cape of Good Hope), indirect risks remain.

Fuel cost risks: Rising crude oil prices may prompt shipping lines to increase fuel surcharges, such as emergency bunker surcharges, adding to the overall costs for shippers.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 26/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 26/2025 increased slightly compared to the previous week, up 1.1% to 641 USD/FEU. This price increased 0.79% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 26/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North Europe to Asia in week 26/2025 remained stable compared to the previous week, increasing only slightly by 0.36% to 276 USD/FEU. This price is up 28.97% compared to last month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 26/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 26/2025 is operating in a "phase-out" scenario and full of overlapping risks. The 9% decline in the global WCI index is mainly due to the cooling of the US route. In addition, the crisis on the European route is getting worse. This is one of the most complicated periods that import-export businesses have to face.

Asia - North America (TPEB): Has officially passed the "fever" and entered the phase of adjustment and rebalancing. The wave of early shipments has created a "demand gap", while shipping lines that have added massive capacity are now proactively cutting back to prevent price declines. Spot rates have fallen sharply (25.58% for the West Coast this week) and are looking for a new stable level.

Asia-Europe (FEWB): In stark contrast, this trade is entering the eye of an operational crisis. Freight rates are expected to peak in July, not because of booming consumer demand, but because of a breakdown in the supply chain from top to bottom: equipment shortages in Asia, port congestion and strikes in Europe.

In addition to operational issues, uncertainty over US trade policy is casting a shadow of uncertainty over the entire trade landscape. The July 9 deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs is fast approaching, but there has been no official announcement from the White House. This creates potential tariff risks that could have a significant impact on importers’ costs.

The combination of these factors shows that global supply chains remain fragile. A shock in one region can quickly have unforeseen consequences in another.

Recommendations from Phaata

This phase requires agility, decisiveness and a "tailored" strategy for each market and each specific risk.

1. Build a separate strategy for each market

For the North American market: This is the "golden time for negotiation". Take advantage of this favorable market period to work with logistics partners, close contracts and good rates for shipments in Q3. Competition between shipping lines is beneficial for shippers.

For the European market: It is necessary to pay attention to risk management and continuity. The absolute priority at this time is to ensure space and equipment. Accept higher costs, work closely with reputable service providers and build detailed contingency plans for delayed or derailed shipments.

2. Proactively Manage Tariff Risks Before the July 9 Deadline:

Businesses exporting to the US from countries affected by reciprocal tariffs should take immediate action:

- Review all shipments scheduled to enter the US after July 9.

- Work with consultants and logistics partners to assess the financial impact if individual tariffs return.

- Prepare contingency plans for the worst-case scenario.

3. Manage Risks and Improve Supply Chain Resilience:

The shortage of empty containers for goods to Europe will continue. Exporters should work closely with logistics partners to plan for early pickup of containers, even accepting higher cost solutions to ensure equipment availability.

Transparency and Collaboration: Communicate with logistics partners to get the most up-to-date information on port, vessel and equipment conditions. Ask them to provide alternatives when things go wrong.

4. Monitor and Adapt Quickly to Trade Policy:

The US tariff environment is constantly changing and has far-reaching implications. Exporters need a dedicated team or partner to monitor official announcements from CBP, USTR, analyze the impact (even if indirect) and adjust strategies as needed.

5. Optimize Total Landed Cost:

Don’t just look at ocean freight rates. Calculate the total cost, including potential costs of delays (warehousing/storage fees), capital costs due to higher inventory, and tariff risks. Sometimes, a more expensive but reliable service option can save you money overall.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.