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Monday, 07/07/2025, 07:34 (GMT +7)

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International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 27/2025 | Phaata

Phaata International Logistics Marketplace updates the international container shipping and logistics market for routes from Asia to North America, Europe... in Week 27/2025 (June 30 to July 6, 2025).

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 27/2025

Download International Logistics Market Update Report Week 26 here

1. World Container Index Week 27/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline sharply for the third consecutive week, falling 5.7% to $2,812/FEU in week 27/2025. This was largely due to a sharp decline in demand for cargoes to the United States; and this suggests that the recent surge in imports into the United States (which occurred after the suspension of high US tariffs) has not had a lasting impact.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 27/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

Week 27, the first week of Q3, confirmed a strong correction trend on the Asia-North America trade. The wave of early shipments to "race" for tariffs left a gap in demand in July, while the capacity added by carriers earlier was still very abundant. This imbalance created a market with excess capacity, pushing spot rates down and officially establishing a "shipper's market".

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: July demand "flat"

Forecasts show that demand in July will be largely flat with no sudden growth in volume. The massive wave of shipments in Q2 (fueled in part by the suspension of US tariffs on Chinese goods) has pushed a large amount of demand from the traditional peak season forward. The current market is no longer "hot" but has returned to a "mixed" state, depending on the strategy of each individual importer.

- On the Supply Side: Excess and flexible management strategies of shipping lines

In response to the signal of slowing demand, shipping lines have begun to act strategically:

Overcapacity: Operating capacity remains high, from 85%-90%, while demand is flat. This clearly shows a surplus of supply compared to current demand, which is the main cause of downward pressure on prices.

"Ad-hoc" capacity management: It is worth noting that the current blank sailings are only ad-hoc, not following a consistent pattern or suspending major service routes. This suggests that carriers are adopting a flexible management strategy, making small adjustments to respond to the market rather than large-scale cuts, possibly waiting to see if demand actually picks up again by the end of Q3.

Container Situation

Container shell supply at most ports of origin remains ample, with no shortages reported. This further reinforces the picture of a balanced to surplus market in terms of equipment.

Freight Rates: Widespread Decline

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in week 27/2025 (June 30 to July 6, 2025) continued to decline sharply by 15.44% compared to the previous week, to USD 2,640/FEU. This is down 46.13% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The supply-demand gap is clearly reflected in the price movements, especially the differentiation between the two coasts:

West Coast: Floating rates continue to fall sharply. Notably, these rates are now at or even lower than fixed rates under long-term contracts. The complete removal of Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) for July 1 is a clear indication of weak demand pressure.

East Coast & Gulf: Floating rates have also cooled down but remain higher than fixed rates under contracts. Similarly, PSS on the East Coast, although reduced, is still in effect. This difference shows that the East Coast market is still a bit "firmer" than the West Coast.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update market developments quickly.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 27/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 27 marks a potential turning point for Vietnamese goods exported to the United States with the announcement of a new bilateral trade agreement. This information appeared at an extremely sensitive time, right before the July 9 deadline when the US's reciprocal tax suspension policy expires, pushing the global trade environment into a chaotic and unpredictable period.

- Highlights: Unexpected US-Vietnam Trade Agreement Announced

This is the most important information and has a direct impact on Vietnamese businesses.

On July 2, President Trump announced on the social network Truth Social about a trade agreement with Vietnam. Similar to the agreement with China, this agreement is likely still awaiting final approval and formalization steps and will not take effect immediately.

The main terms announced:

- Imposing a 20% tax on goods originating from Vietnam imported into the US.

- 40% tax on goods transiting through Vietnam to enter the US.

- 0% tax rate for US goods imported into Vietnam.

Significant impact on competitiveness: The 20% tax rate is a fundamental change, which will directly impact the cost and final price of Vietnamese goods in the US market.

Strong anti-tax evasion message: The 40% tax rate on transit goods is a strong warning, showing that the US will tighten supervision and punishment of acts using Vietnam as a transit point to avoid tariffs imposed on other countries.

- The Future of Reciprocal Taxes - Deadline 9/7 Nears

Uncertainty reaches its peak: Only a few days left until the 9/7 deadline, but the future of the reciprocal tax suspension policy remains very vague.

President Trump's stance: He said it was "unlikely" that he would extend the pause, but also left the door open with a "I could, no problem" statement. This stance creates maximum unpredictability.

"90 deals in 90 days" target failed: The US administration admitted that this target was not achieved and is now aiming for 10-12 major agreements by Labor Day.

"Tariff Letter" scenario: For other countries without a deal, President Trump said he could simply "send a letter" announcing their tariff rates, which could range from 10% to 50%. This is a very unpredictable approach.

EU & Canada update: Canada has changed its digital tax policy to resume negotiations. The EU is said to have accepted a 10% tariff on many goods in exchange for sector-specific incentives.

- Update on Other Tariffs

De Minimis: The “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which would end de minimis exemptions for commercial shipments from all countries by 2027, passed the Senate on July 1 and is now moving forward with the White House. This is a structural change that will have a huge impact on the e-commerce logistics industry in the long term.

IEEPA Tariffs: Remain in effect and collected while the legal appeals process continues.

Section 232 Tariffs on Automobiles: The 25% tariff remains in place, with exemptions for USMCA goods and certain parts.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

Week 27, the first week of July, sheds light on the complex picture of the Asia-North Europe market. In-depth analysis shows that the argument of a weak demand market in the recent period is not entirely correct. Instead, we are in a scenario where solid seasonal demand is being challenged by an unpredictable capacity management strategy by shipping lines, creating a high-rate and operationally challenging market.

On supply and demand:

- On the demand side: Solid demand foundation, not weak at all

Demand is recovering steadily and following the normal seasonal pattern. Transport volumes usually increase gradually from April to August, with peaks concentrated in July and August to serve the end-of-year holiday shopping season in Europe.

Data shows that export values to Europe have consistently exceeded the same period last year since March.

This confirms that the relatively weak freight rates we observed in the previous period were mainly due to large overcapacity, rather than lack of demand. The market fundamentals were already good, but were obscured by excessive supply.

- On the Supply Side: Unpredictable Capacity Regulation Strategy

Although the average weekly capacity in July increased by 11% compared to June (to 293,700 TEU) to meet the peak season, the weekly capacity deployment was extremely volatile and uneven.

Weeks 27, 29, 31 saw capacity pushed up very high (over 320,000 TEU), but were suddenly tightened in Weeks 28 (just over 220,000 TEU) and Week 30 (270,000 TEU).

Phaata believes that this could be a strategic move by shipping lines to "create waves" in the market, tightening supply in certain weeks to create momentum for demand and keep freight rates high in the following weeks.

This uneven deployment is the cause of increased cases of cargo rollovers and equipment shortages since the beginning of July.

Freight Rates:

Freight rates from Asia to Europe in week 27/2025 continued to increase sharply by 16.64% compared to the previous week, reaching USD 3,350/FEU. This is up 44.65% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

The combination of solid demand and regulated supply has allowed carriers to maintain their positions.

July GRIs hold steady: Most carriers have not made any significant concessions to the General Rate Increases (GRIs) announced for July.

Prices remain stable at high levels: In the first half of July, average freight rates for 40-foot containers remained stable at high levels, with no signs of a sharp decline.

Vessel utilization remains very good, with sailings fully booked 2 to 3 weeks in advance. This stability is further strengthening the carriers’ confidence in maintaining high prices in the coming period.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logsitcs Marketplace to quickly update market developments.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 27/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from North America (West Coast) to Asia fell 4.21% to $614/FEU in week 27/2025. This is down 2.69% month-on-month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 27/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia reversed sharply in the week of 27/2025, falling 21.74% to $216/FEU. This is a decrease of 9.62% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 27/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

International Logistics Markets Week 27/2025 has presented a deeply polarized and risky picture. There is no longer a single global trend; instead, we are facing two completely opposite operating realities, both shrouded in a thick fog of trade policy uncertainty.

Asia-North America: It has officially entered a “buyer’s market”. The wave of early loading has ended, leaving a demand gap in July. Carriers with ample capacity are forced to compete, resulting in a sharp decline in spot rates (down more than 15% for the West Coast this week) and approaching or even below contract rates.

Asia-Europe: It is absolutely a “seller’s market”. Solid seasonal demand is facing a deliberate tightening of supply through the carriers’ unpredictable capacity management strategies. Freight rates continue to climb (up more than 16% in a week) and ship failures and equipment shortages are becoming more serious.

The most important event of the week was President Trump's announcement of a trade agreement with Vietnam, which includes a 20% tariff on goods originating from Vietnam and a 40% tariff on transit goods. If implemented, this will be a structural change, with profound impacts on Vietnam's competitiveness and position in the global supply chain.

Uncertainty Before the July 9 Deadline: The deadline for the US government to decide whether to extend the reciprocal tariff suspension is approaching, but there has been no official announcement. This silence is forcing businesses around the world to prepare for the worst.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires calmness, in-depth analysis and decisive action. Old strategies will no longer work.

1. Priority #1 - Comprehensively Reassess Risks and Opportunities in the US Market:

Act now on tariff information: Vietnamese businesses must immediately incorporate the 20% tariff scenario into their business models. Work with partners and customers in the US to recalculate costs, renegotiate contracts and reassess product competitiveness.

Enhance supply chain transparency: The 40% tariff on transit goods is a serious warning. Businesses must ensure that traceability records are perfect to avoid any legal risks.

Take advantage of low freight rates: Paradoxically, while facing tariff risks, freight rates to the US are very good. Take advantage of this to optimize costs for immediate shipments, while preparing for a new cost environment in the future.

2. Adopt a Flexible Operational Strategy:

For North America: Leverage your “buyer” position to negotiate better prices and demand more stable service. This is a good time to close spot contracts for Q3.

For Europe: Shift to a “manage risk and accept costs” mindset. Ensure space and equipment are available as a top priority. Develop detailed contingency plans for delays and prepare a flexible budget for higher rates.

3. Prepare for Wider Disruption After July 9:

Regardless of the outcome, July 9 will bring changes. Businesses with global supply chains need to prepare for disruption and cost volatility from other markets if the US reimposes country-specific tariffs.

4. Enhance Analysis and Risk Management Capabilities:

Phaata believes that success in this period no longer depends solely on finding the cheapest freight rates. Instead, it depends on the ability of businesses to analyze macro information, manage policy risks, and build a supply chain that is flexible enough to withstand shocks. Investing in "market intelligence" and strategic consulting partners is essential.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.