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International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 38/2025 | Phaata

Phaata International Logistics Marketplace updates the international container shipping and logistics market for routes from Asia to North America, Europe... in Week 38/2025 (Sep 15 to Sep 21, 2025).

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 38/2025

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 38/2025

Download International Logistics Market Update Report Week 37 here

1. World Container Index Week 38/2025

The Drewry WCI continued to decline for the 14th consecutive week, falling another 6% to $1,913/FEU in week 38/2025 (September 15-21, 2025). After two weeks of rates moving in opposite directions, the two main trade lanes, the Trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe, are now on the same downward path, although each lane is falling at different rates.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 38/2025

Drewry's World Container Index Week 38/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North America market in Week 38 (September 15 to September 21, 2025) has shown the failure of shipping lines to push up rates in the face of weak market fundamentals. The "psychological" game is over; the attempt to increase prices in mid-September has completely collapsed. The underlying cause comes from the large inventory situation in the US that has "suffocated" the demand for new orders, making the period before Golden Week, which is usually bustling, become unusually quiet. This is the golden time for importers and exporters to optimize costs.

Supply and demand:

- On the demand side: The peak before Golden Week does not appear

It can now be firmly affirmed that the wave of early imports in Q2 to avoid taxes has led to a surplus of inventory in the US market. This is the root cause of the significant drop in demand for new shipments and a period before Golden Week that was completely devoid of any sudden changes.

- On the Supply Side: Overcapacity and Countermeasures

Lines are still facing overcapacity. To cope and prevent freefalling rates, they are implementing planned blank sailings, such as the Premier Alliance temporarily suspending PS5 service.

Despite the blank sailings, there is still space available, especially at East Coast ports.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A new operational risk that shippers need to be aware of is the possibility that lines will not announce blank sailings until very close to the sailing date. This is a tactic to hold bookings until the last minute. However, it can cause shipping schedules to slide, seriously affecting the plans of businesses.

The overall situation has improved slightly. However, the differentiation remains: shortages are still a major concern for carriers such as CMA and HMM, while other carriers are in better shape.

Major Incident at the Port of Long Beach:

On the positive side, unloading operations (for unaffected containers) on the ZIM Mississippi have resumed since September 17.

However, all containers involved in the incident are still being held by the US Coast Guard for investigation. The release of these shipments and procedures related to General Average will continue.

Freight Rates:

Ocean Freight rates from Asia to the West Coast of North America in week 38/2025 fell sharply by 4.51% compared to the previous week, to 2,159 USD/FEU. This price increased by 17.53% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

This is the most important development, showing a complete change in market sentiment:

- GRI & PSS Total Failure: The attempt to increase prices in mid-September by shipping lines has completely failed. The General Rate Increase (GRI) on September 15 was completely withdrawn. The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) has also been postponed to October 15.

- Moving from "Holding Prices" to "Discounting Prices": Instead of trying to hold prices in vain, shipping lines have now switched to a proactive strategy of reducing prices to compete and attract goods.

- Price stability until mid-October: Some shipping lines have extended their current low rates until October 14, which is over the Golden Week holiday.

Regularly follow the articles on Phaata International Logistics Marketplace to update in-depth and fast market developments.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 38/2025

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 38/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 38 (September 15-September 21, 2025) marks a clear shift in US trade policy. The era of shock announcements is slowly passing, giving way to a new reality of complex enforcement, compliance and long-term legal battles. Businesses must now shift their focus from reacting to news headlines to meticulously managing operational and compliance details.

1- Maritime Service Charge for Chinese Vessels (Effective October 14)

A new service charge is expected to be levied on maritime transport services provided by Chinese operators or using vessels built in China, effective October 14. However, a positive signal is that shipping lines have now implemented effective mitigation measures (such as route adjustments, fleet restructuring). Therefore, at this point, Phaata predicts that it is highly unlikely that these costs will be passed on to customers and that no related surcharges will be applied. However, this is still a factor that needs to be monitored in the long term.

2- US-Japan Agreement Officially Goes Live - The Complicated Compliance Problem

The new trade rules in the US-Japan agreement officially took effect on September 16, and are applied retroactively to shipments from August 7. Key rules include: A base tariff of 15% applied to most goods, a reduction in auto/parts tariffs to 15%, and exemptions for key industries.

Importer Action: Importers of Japanese goods should urgently review all customs declarations from August 7 to identify opportunities for duty refunds (for items with reduced tariffs such as automobiles) as well as compliance risks related to the classification and declaration of new tariff codes.

3- New Risks Ahead: HOPE/AGOA Preferential Programs to Expire (September 30)

This is the biggest and most urgent risk during this period.

Urgent warning: The important trade preference programs HOPE (for Haiti) and AGOA (for African countries) will expire on September 30 – just over a week away.

Without timely action from the US Congress, goods from these regions will lose their tariff preferences, significantly impacting the costs and competitiveness of supply chains that rely on these programs. Despite bipartisan support for an extension, uncertainty remains.

4- Update on Other Longer-Term Developments

Annex II & III: The list of products exempt from reciprocal tariffs (Annex II) has been updated. A new Annex III has been introduced, which may involve non-stock natural resources, but the details remain unclear, adding another layer of complexity to compliance.

IEEPA Case: The Supreme Court will begin oral arguments in early November. In the meantime, the tariffs remain in effect.

Overall: The period of shock announcements is giving way to a more complex period of detailed implementation, legal challenges, and legislative deadlines. The focus of businesses must now shift from reacting to headlines to managing the details of operations and compliance in a reshaped trade landscape.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia - North Europe market in Week 38 (from 15/9 to 21/9/2025) witnessed a complete collapse in rates, clearly showing that power has completely shifted to the importers and exporters. The root cause comes from the demand side, when inflation and high inventory levels in Europe have "strangled" the demand for new imports. Faced with this reality, shipping lines have no other choice but to compete at a discount to win each container of cargo.

On supply and demand:

- On the demand side: Severely weakened demand

The root cause of the market weakness has been revealed: inflation and high inventory levels are making European retailers very cautious about importing new consumer goods. Actual demand in the market is very weak.

- On the Supply Side: Blank Sailings after Golden Week

Lines have planned to cancel around 25% of capacity on the Asia-North Europe trade in Weeks 40-41 (right after the Golden Week holidays). However, it should be stressed that the scale of the cuts is smaller than in previous years, indicating that competition between lines is very strong and overall supply from now until mid-October is still relatively abundant.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

A notable positive development is that congestion at European ports has eased. This improves schedule reliability but also removes a factor that has helped to artificially 'support' freight rates in previous months.

Freight Rates:

Freight rates from Asia to Europe continued their downward trend for the seventh consecutive week, dropping sharply by 10.27% week-on-week to $1,983/FEU. This is a 35.49% decrease month-on-month, according to Xeneta data. This is a strong quantitative indicator that the market is going down sharply.

The market is weakening sharply, shipping lines are making great efforts to reduce prices and compete for cargo, as shown by the following factors:

- The General Price Increase (GRI) on September 15 has been completely withdrawn.

- Shipping lines have started to proactively reduce prices to compete and attract cargo.

- Many shipping lines have extended these low prices until October 14, which is over the Golden Week holiday.

The Asia-Europe market has collapsed, similar to what happened to Asia-North America a few weeks ago. The current market is a "buyer's market". Post-holiday cancellations are the main defense of shipping lines to prevent freight rates from falling. However, with smaller-than-usual cuts and weak demand, the downward pressure is likely to remain.

Phaata predicts that the downward trend will continue. The spot market may see further declines in late September until the Golden Week holiday due to the pressure from weak demand.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 38/2025

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 38/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

North America (West Coast) to Asia freight rates for week 38/2025 continued to decrease by 1.17% compared to the previous week, to USD 673/FEU. This price increased by 6.15% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 38/2025

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 38/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

North Europe to Asia freight rates for week 38/2025 remained stable at USD 182/FEU as last week. This price decreased by 14.95% compared to the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North Europe - Asia freight rates | Week 38/2025

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 38/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 38/2025 is shaped by two main factors: a "uniform plunge" in freight rates on major routes and a trade policy environment that is entering the implementation phase and important deadlines.

The polarization of previous weeks has ended. Both Asia-North America (TPEB) and Asia-Europe (FEWB) trades are now in a deep and clear downward adjustment cycle. The core cause is the synchronous weakening of demand in Western markets, which is caused by inflation and high inventories.

On both routes, shipping lines have "surrendered" to fundamental factors. The mid-September price hikes have failed miserably, and carriers are now actively cutting prices to compete and attract cargo. This is a “buyer’s market” in its entirety.

While the risk of skyrocketing freight rates has disappeared, other risks have emerged in a more acute manner:

- Urgent Policy Risks: The risk of the key trade preference programs HOPE (for Haiti) and AGOA (for Africa) expiring on September 30 is the most immediate and serious threat to the relevant supply chains.

- Compliance Burdens: The US-Japan agreement officially coming into effect with retroactive rules is creating a complex compliance puzzle for importers.

- Longer-Term Legal Risks: The IEEPA tax case is still pending before the Supreme Court, posing both risks and great financial opportunities in the future.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires agility to take advantage of pricing opportunities, while being extremely careful to manage policy and compliance risks.

1. Take Advantage of the "Golden Time" for Q4 Cargo:

This is one of the most favorable market periods for buyers in many years. With shipping lines extending low rates until mid-October, this is a very good time for businesses to negotiate aggressively and close shipments for the entire Q4 at extremely competitive costs.

2. Urgent Action Before HOPE/AGOA September 30 Deadline:

This is the number one and most urgent priority. With less than a week to go, U.S. importers with supply chains in Haiti or AGOA African countries should immediately work with their partners to plan for the worst-case scenario of these programs expiring, resulting in their goods losing their duty-free status.

3. Shifting Focus to Compliance Management:

This is the time for U.S. importers to invest in compliance capabilities. Importers of goods from Japan should proactively work with customs service units to review declarations from August 7. This will not only help avoid penalties but may also lead to significant tax refund opportunities.

4. Preparing for the Post-Golden Week Period:

While prices are very good, it is important to note that shipping lines have announced plans to cancel sailings of 25% capacity on the European route immediately after the holidays. Similar moves may be applied to the U.S. route.

Ensure that critical shipments are shipped before or immediately after the holidays to avoid being affected by this capacity squeeze. The period of low prices may not last forever if carriers are successful in rebalancing the market.

5. Navigating the New Trading Playground:

Reassess supply maps: Businesses with global supply chains need to reassess their supply maps in light of new bilateral tariffs.

Prioritize Transparency: In an environment where anti-tax evasion measures are increasingly stringent, having a transparent supply chain and perfect origin records is a competitive advantage and an important defense.

6. Building "Defensive" Capabilities for the Future:

Phaata believes that resilience is now extremely important. Successful businesses in the new era will be those that build a flexible supply chain through diversification (both suppliers and logistics options), strategic partnerships, and real-time information visibility.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.