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Sunday, 14/12/2025, 17:12 (GMT +7)

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International Shipping and Logistics Market Update Week 50/2025 | Phaata

The international logistics marketplace platform Phaata provides an update on the international container shipping and logistics market for routes from Asia to North America, Europe, and more for Week 50 (from December 8 - 14), 2025.

International shipping and logistics market update

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 50/2025

Download International Logistics Market Update Report Week 50 here

1. World Container Index Week 50/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 50/2025 (from Dec 8 to Dec 14, 2025) continued to rise by 2% from the previous week, reaching $1,957/FEU.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 50/2025

Drewry's World Container Index Week 50/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 50 (Dec 8-14, 2025) is operating contrary to typical year-end peak season norms. Instead of space scarcity and soaring rates in a pre-holiday rush, we are seeing a market with overcapacity, and rates are under heavy pressure and have fallen sharply, in stark contrast to the usual year-end peaks.

Supply and demand:

Demand:

Demand remains stable and flat. The market has not recorded any volume surge. This suggests that Beneficial Cargo Owners (BCOs) have finished stocking up and shifted to a "wait-and-see" mentality. There is no urgent driver to push cargo during this period, making the December market unusually quiet.

Supply:

High Stability: Transport capacity is maintaining a high, stable level of 80-90% for the rest of December.

Reduced Blank Sailings: A key indicator to note is the significant decrease in cancelled sailings compared to the same period last year (Year-over-Year). This December sees only 21 blank sailings, compared to 30 in December 2024.

Assessment: With reduced blank sailings amidst weak demand, Phaata assesses that carriers are prioritizing a strategy of market share protection and service network maintenance rather than tightening supply to support rates. This inadvertently exacerbates the overcapacity situation.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 50/2025 reversed to fall sharply by 12.83% compared to the previous week, down to $1,706/FEU. This rate is down 29.53% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Dec 1 GRI Failed: Carriers are having to continue to mitigate the rate hikes announced for Dec 1. The reality is the market did not accept the new price levels, forcing carriers to discount to fill vessels.

Dec 15 GRI - A Technical Effort: Carriers have announced a new General Rate Increase (GRI) for Dec 15. Phaata assesses that this hike is driven entirely by the severely depressed base rate levels, not by surging demand. This is an attempt by carriers to stop the freefall and establish a new price floor before entering 2026.

PSS Postponed: The Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) continues to be postponed to January 2026. This confirms that December has no "peak season."

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 50/2025

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 50/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 50 marks a major turning point as Mexico officially bows to U.S. pressure, erecting a massive tariff wall against China to protect its standing in the USMCA. Meanwhile, the "America First" policy continues to spread to agriculture with threats of tariffs on Canadian fertilizer and water disputes with Mexico. On the other side of the globe, the U.S.-Indonesia deal is at risk of collapse, highlighting the fragility of trade commitments in the new era.

1- Mexico "Closes the Backdoor": 50% Tariff on Chinese Goods & USMCA Pressure

This is the most significant development, directly impacting the "China Plus One" strategy of many businesses.

On Dec 10, Mexico ratified tariffs of up to 50% on goods from China and countries without a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Mexico. Effective from January 2026.

Chinese goods have flooded Mexico (accounting for 20% of total imports in 2024), especially autos. Washington views this as a "backdoor" for Chinese goods to dodge U.S. taxes via USMCA labeling.

Phaata assesses that this move by Mexico is a mandatory "clearing the path" step ahead of the USMCA renegotiation next year. Mexico is forced to sacrifice benefits from cheap Chinese goods to keep its ticket to the U.S. market. Supply chains using Mexico purely as a transshipment point will be "killed off."

2- North American Agriculture & Resource Disputes:

Water and Fertilizer The U.S. is using tariffs as a multi-purpose weapon, not just for trade but for resource and food security issues.

Water Issue (US-Mexico):

President Trump threatened an additional 5% tariff if Mexico does not release 200,000 acre-feet of water (under the 1944 Treaty) by Dec 31.
Although Mexico pledged compliance, infrastructure constraints make immediate release very difficult. The risk of additional tariffs hangs over Mexican exporters at year-end.

Fertilizer Issue (US-Canada):

Threats to impose "severe tariffs" on Canadian fertilizer (Potash) to boost domestic production.
Canada supplies >80% of Potash to the U.S. This tariff contradicts the goal of supporting farmers (reducing input costs), even though the U.S. just announced a $12 billion support package for farmers from tariff revenue. This is a risky move that could push food prices higher.

3- Fragility of New Deals: Indonesia & UK:

US-Indonesia: Risk of Collapse

The July agreement is shaky. The U.S. imposed a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods from August, but Indonesia is "backtracking" on removing non-tariff barriers and digital barriers for U.S. goods.
U.S. importers suffer a double blow: paying the 19% tax but not receiving reciprocal market opening benefits.

US-UK: Pharmaceutical Deal

The U.S. exempts UK pharmaceuticals from Section 232 tariffs, in exchange for the UK accepting 25% higher prices for U.S. drugs.
A typical transactional deal, prioritizing U.S. pharma profits over allied healthcare costs.

4- Other Updates:

South Korea: 15% minimum tariff (retroactive from mid-November). Tax refund opportunities for autos and furniture remain open.

Mexico IMMEX (Jan 1, 2026): Upcoming customs reform will require proof of substantial industrial production processes. Businesses performing only superficial assembly will be excluded from tax incentive programs.

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 50 (Dec 8-14, 2025) is operating at full capacity. Significant demand growth is led by two factors: year-end market recovery (consumer electronics, auto parts) and accelerated shipments by businesses before stringent EU carbon regulations (CBAM and ETS) take full effect in 2026. Port congestion and bad weather are exacerbating capacity scarcity, allowing carriers to continuously push rates higher.

On supply and demand:

Demand: Bookings surged thanks to a clear recovery in consumer electronics and auto parts exports to Europe. The accelerated shipping ahead of 2026 EU carbon regulations (including the expanded scope of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism - CBAM, and the Emissions Trading System - ETS - increasing payment rates to 100% for shipping) is creating a wave of "mandatory" demand. Businesses want to get goods into EU warehouses before logistics and carbon costs are pushed higher in Q1/2026.

Supply: Available capacity is tightening.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

Congestion in Asia: Ningbo port faces 1.5-day vessel delays (weather and dredging). South China ports face container shortage risks. notably, Southeast Asia congestion is causing feeder schedule delays in Vietnam and Cambodia, affecting regional supply chain reliability.
Congestion in Europe: Major ports Rotterdam and Hamburg are delayed due to snowstorms and yard congestion. Hinterland transport is threatened by potential rail strikes and low Rhine water levels.
Last-Minute Blank Sailings: A sailing from East/South China to Belgium/Netherlands/Germany was cancelled at the last minute. This situation could increase in the second half of December due to prolonged vessel delays returning to Asia from North Europe ports.

Freight Rate Developments:

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 50/2025 fell slightly by 1.1% to $2,348/FEU. This rate is up 5.34% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The market is supported by the Pre-CNY surge, combined with increased demand before EU carbon regulations take effect.

Carriers are actively pushing GRIs (General Rate Increases), with hikes up to 40% for the second half of December. Their goal is not just to increase spot rates but to use high spot levels as strategic leverage to secure favorable terms in upcoming annual contract negotiations.

Second Half of December Strategy: Due to widespread port delays and rolled cargo at major origin ports, the year-end replenishment cycle has been extended longer than expected. Leading carriers have quickly seized this opportunity to introduce additional GRIs and premium products with space guarantees for the second half of December.

Phaata forecasts that spot rates are expected to remain elevated through the Christmas and New Year period. The likelihood of a sharp price drop in the short term is very low.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 50/2025

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 50/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 50/2025 reversed to fall 4.05% from the previous week, down to $640/FEU. This rate is up 1.75% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 50/2025

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 50/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 50/2025 continued to fall slightly by 0.79%, down to $125/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 4.58% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 50/2025

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 50/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 50/2025 is shaped by three pivotal trends:

Polarized Transport Market:

Asia - North America: Officially shows no peak season. Flat demand and overcapacity (80-90%) caused rates to plunge (-12.83%). This is an opportunity for shippers to negotiate better rates.
Asia - Europe: Conversely, is under market pressure due to demand for shipping ahead of 2026 Carbon regulations, weather-related congestion, and the pre-Tet season. Despite slight price fluctuations, the dominant trend is space tightness and high rates.

North American Supply Chain Restructuring: Mexico's decision to impose a 50% tariff on Chinese goods is a "death sentence" for the transshipment model. The "via Mexico" route to the U.S. has been blocked. North America is becoming a closed protectionist fortress.

New Compliance Costs: From water and fertilizer regulations to EU Carbon rules, non-tariff factors are directly impacting Landed Cost more powerfully than ever.

Recommendations from Phaata

In this chaotic landscape, businesses should consider applying the following recommendations:

1- Tactic for U.S. Trade: Negotiate Better Rates & Wait

Do not sign long-term contracts (NAC) right now: Spot rates are in freefall and lower than contract rates. Continue using spot rates in December.

Booking for January: Although December is gloomy, January will have a short peak before Lunar New Year. Leverage current low rates to secure bookings for sailings from Jan 1 - Jan 15, 2026, before carriers can re-apply PSS.

2- Tactic for Europe Trade: "Race Against Time"

Prioritize Speed: The top goal is for goods to clear EU customs before Carbon regulations (ETS/CBAM) tighten fully in 2026.

Accept High Prices: Don't haggle over a few hundred dollars in freight to risk getting rolled and bearing huge Carbon taxes next year. Buy Premium/Guaranteed slots if necessary.

3- Urgent Restructuring in Mexico:

Businesses assembling in Mexico using Chinese components need to find alternative supply sources immediately (from Vietnam, India, or domestic Mexico). The 50% tariff will destroy all profit margins by Jan 2026.

Prepare a financial contingency plan for the risk of an additional 5% tariff (due to water disputes) if your goods are exported from Mexico to the U.S. in late December.

4- Seize Financial Opportunity (South Korea):

Review all import declarations from South Korea since mid-November. File for retroactive tax refunds immediately. This is valuable cash flow to offset rising costs in other markets.

5- Caution with Indonesia:

The US-Indonesia deal is shaky. U.S. importers should be cautious when signing large orders from Indonesia with expectations of tax incentives, as policy risk here is high.

Regularly follow articles on Phaata.com or Phaata fanpage to quickly update market developments.