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Tuesday, 04/11/2025, 12:31 (GMT +7)

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International Transport and Logistics Market Update Week 44/2025 | Phaata

The international logistics marketplace platform Phaata provides an update on the international container shipping and logistics market for routes from Asia to North America, Europe, and more for Week 44 (from October 27 - November 2), 2025.

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 44/2025

International shipping and logistics market update - Week 44/2025

Download International Logistics Market Update Report Week 43 here

1. World Container Index Week 44/2025

Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) in week 44/2025 (from Oct 27 to Nov 2, 2025) continued to rise, increasing by 4% from the previous week to $1,822/FEU.

Drewry's World Container Index Week 44/2025

Drewry's World Container Index Week 44/2025 (Photo: Phaata)

2. Asia-North America Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North America market in Week 44 (Oct 27 - Nov 2, 2025) saw a clear success in carrier strategy. The deliberate post-Golden Week "capacity shock" (cutting capacity to just 60-70%) was highly effective. It successfully created a space scarcity, halted the rate decline, and allowed them to successfully implement the October 15 General Rate Increase (GRI). However, this victory is fragile as the market heads into a challenging November, where abundant capacity is set to return against a backdrop of unimproved demand.

Supply and demand:

- Demand: Utilization has improved compared to the pre-Golden Week period. However, this improvement is not coming from a strong economic recovery. It is being driven by two short-term factors: (1) the natural recovery of shipments post-holiday, and (2) a hurried wave of bookings in late October due to fears of the previously anticipated tariff hikes. As a result, some West Coast routes are near-full or at high utilization, but this is a consequence of tightened capacity, not booming demand.

- Supply: The "capacity shock" is at its peak and nearing its end. Deployed capacity is at its lowest point, at only 60-70%, and will remain so until the end of October. This is a direct consequence of the wave of post-Golden Week blank sailings. However, this is only a short-term shock. The plan for a strong capacity recovery back to over 80% in November indicates that an overcapacity situation is likely to return quickly.

On Operations & Container Equipment Situation

A notable operational development is the increase in cargo rollovers related to the post-holiday blank sailings. This is a deliberate tactic by the carriers. The lines planned to accept more bookings than the actual capacity on the final sailings before the holiday. The goal is to ensure the first sailings after the holiday are full, helping them to hold rates and stabilize the market during a period of weak demand.

Freight Rate Developments:

Ocean freight rates from Asia to the North America West Coast in week 44/2025 continued to rise slightly by 1.61% from the previous week, to $2,102/FEU. This rate is up 19.93% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

The October 15 GRI has been successfully implemented and is holding firm. The SCFI index has also risen 11.2% for the West Coast and 6.2% for the East Coast. This shows that the carriers' capacity management discipline has paid off.

Emboldened by this success, carriers have quickly announced a new GRI for November 1. However, they are also continuing to postpone the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) to November 15. This is a signal that the carriers themselves lack confidence in a sustainable market recovery. Market demand is insufficient to support a peak surcharge.

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 44/2025

Asia-North America Freight Rates | Week 44/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

US Tariff Updates:

Week 44 witnessed a significant geopolitical de-escalation at the U.S.-China summit, temporarily removing the largest risk from the supply chain. In parallel, the U.S. signed a series of bilateral agreements with Asian allies, revealing a clear policy model: "Tariffs in exchange for investment and market access." However, the "stick" remains, with new tariffs targeting the North American supply chain officially taking effect and compliance burdens becoming more complex.

1- The Biggest Focus: U.S.-China Summit "Cools" Tensions

This was the most important development, bringing a "sigh of relief" to global trade. The meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea, while not yielding a final deal, has created an important "truce".

Key Concessions:

U.S.: Agreed to reduce the "fentanyl" tariff on China from 20% to 10% (bringing the total tariff rate to ~45%) and suspend port fees on Chinese vessels for 1 year.
China: Agreed to postpone rare earth export controls for 1 year, resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, and suspend retaliatory port fees.

This is a strategic de-escalation by both sides, temporarily taking the catastrophic (155%) tariff scenario off the table. However, the most core and strategic issues, like semiconductors, remain unresolved, indicating this is a delay, not a final solution.

2- The Rise of the "Tariffs-for-Investment" Model

A flurry of agreements announced with Asian allies shows a new U.S. trade policy model:

South Korea (Oct 29): Reached a deal where the U.S. reduces reciprocal tariffs from 25% to 15%. In return, South Korea commits to $20 billion in cash investment annually and $150 billion in the U.S. shipbuilding industry.
Southeast Asian Nations (Oct 26): New agreements with Malaysia, Cambodia, and frameworks with Thailand and Vietnam all follow a pattern: the U.S. maintains existing reciprocal tariffs, and in return, these nations must remove non-tariff barriers and increase purchases of strategic U.S. products (aerospace, energy, agriculture).

3- The "Stick" Still Comes Down on the North American Supply Chain (Effective Nov 1)

While negotiating with Asia, Washington officially tightened the screws on its USMCA partners.

The 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDV) officially takes effect on November 1 (this Saturday).

A Massive Compliance Burden: The most complex point is the rule for USMCA-compliant goods. Importers may only have to pay the 25% tariff on the non-North American value portion. This is a compliance nightmare, requiring businesses to have unprecedentedly detailed traceability and cost-calculation capabilities.

4- The Battle Over Strategic Sourcing

The negotiations over rare earths (with China) and the MOUs on critical minerals (with Malaysia, Thailand) clearly show the new front of trade policy: securing high-tech supply chains. Malaysia's declaration that it will maintain its export ban (contrary to the MOU) and the fact that China still holds a monopoly on 90% of global refining capacity show this battle will be long and complex.

Overall Assessment: Week 44 has brought a valuable but fragile stability to the world's most critical trade lane (U.S.-China). At the same time, it has clearly exposed the U.S. global strategy: turning tariffs into a transactional tool to achieve goals in investment (with allies) and supply chain security (with rivals).

3. Asia-Europe Ocean Freight Rates

The Asia-North Europe market in Week 44 (Oct 27 - Nov 2, 2025) is seeing a sharp price reversal, but this is an "unhealthy" increase. The root cause is not a recovery in consumer demand, but a severe operational crisis at major European ports. This paralysis is creating a serious "vicious cycle": ships are late returning to Asia, causing large-scale unplanned capacity cuts, which in turn leads to equipment shortages and drives up freight rates.

On supply and demand:

- Demand: Market demand has recovered gradually after the Golden Week holiday, but the foundation is not yet solid. The slight booking increase in late October is not a real economic recovery. Instead, it is being driven by shippers' fear as they try to get cargo on board before the November General Rate Increase (GRI) takes effect.

- Supply: Severe congestion at major European ports continues. Ships are delayed returning to Asia, creating an "unintended capacity shock" at origin ports. This is leading to a projected severe capacity drop of 21% in Week 45, and a 10% weekly capacity shortage throughout the rest of November. Carriers are anticipating significant schedule disruptions and severe equipment shortages in early November.

On Operations and Container Equipment Situation:

The inevitable consequence of late vessel returns is that major loading ports in Asia are running low on empty containers.

Equipment shortages have been reported in Shanghai and Ningbo, as well as at feeder ports. The inventory situation for many carriers is "tight."

A new blank sailing program for November has been announced, primarily in the first half of the month (a 20% capacity cut in Week 45 and 4% in Week 46).

Freight Rate Developments:

The freight rate from Asia to Europe in week 44/2025 continued to fall slightly by 0.26% to $1,937/FEU. This rate is up 9.25% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Major carriers have increased FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates for the second half of October and have officially announced General Rate Increases (GRIs) for November.

Load factors over the past two weeks have only hovered around 80-85%. From our observation and experience, we believe this is not a terrible number, but it shows that pressure remains and that the carriers' rate support measures have not been fully effective.

Phaata forecasts the market will remain steady in November, mainly due to the carriers' capacity management measures. The carriers' focus right now is on optimizing vessel utilization rather than competing on price.

Stay tuned to Phaata International Logistics Marketplace for in-depth and fast market updates.

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 44/2025

Asia-Europe Freight Rates | Week 44/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

4. North America - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from North America (West Coast) to Asia in week 44/2025 reversed to a slight decline of 0.98% from the previous week, down to $655/FEU. This rate is down 3.48% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 44/2025

North America (West Coast) - Asia freight rates | Week 44/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

5. Northern Europe - Asia Ocean Freight Rates

The freight rate from Northern Europe to Asia in week 44/2025 reversed to a slight increase of 0.54%, to $152/FEU compared to the previous week. This rate is down 14.57% from the previous month, according to Xeneta data.

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 44/2025

Container Freight rates from Northern Europe to Asia | Week 44/2025 (Photo: Phaata.com)

6. Conclusion and Recommendations from Phaata

The international logistics market in Week 44/2025 is being dominated by a "two-speed" price increase on the main trades, but neither is originating from a foundation of strong demand. At the same time, the geopolitical-trade landscape has seen a critical strategic "de-escalation," only to be tightened with more detailed compliance rules.

Asia - North America: Has seen a "tactical" price hike. Carriers successfully raised rates by aggressively tightening capacity in October, leading to a successful GRI. However, this is a short-term victory, and the real "showdown" will happen in November when abundant capacity returns.

Asia - Europe: Is in a real operational crisis. Rates are being pushed up not by tactics, but by systemic paralysis: late vessels due to congestion are causing an "unintended capacity shock" (projected 21% drop in W45) and severe equipment shortages in Asia. This is a disadvantageous scenario for shippers: paying more for a less reliable service.

The biggest event of Week 44 is seen as the "de-escalation" deal in the U.S.-China trade war. This has removed the catastrophic 155% tariff risk and temporarily brought valuable stability. However, at the same time, new structural rules are officially taking effect (25% tax on heavy-duty trucks from Nov 1) and new agreements (with Korea, ASEAN) are reshaping the playing field based on a "tariffs-for-investment-and-market-access" model.

Recommendations from Phaata

This period requires a clear head to avoid getting caught up in the "artificial fever," while also taking decisive action to manage real risks.

1- Prioritize Managing the European Operational Crisis:

This is the most urgent risk. With a 21% capacity drop expected and equipment shortages already confirmed in Shanghai/Ningbo, businesses with cargo for Europe need to act urgently.

The top priority is securing space and equipment. Accept the higher November rate levels, work closely with logistics partners to get commitments on space and containers, and build in a significant time buffer for the forecasted delays.

2- Apply a "Wait-and-See" Strategy for the North American Market:

Do not get caught up in the artificial price "fever" of October. With capacity expected to rebound massively (above 80%) in November, the market is very likely to "soften" again quickly.

If your shipment is not urgent, waiting until mid-November could yield significantly better rates.

3- Capitalize on the U.S.-China De-escalation:

The U.S.-China de-escalation is a golden opportunity. U.S. importers should use this period to move critical shipments and, more importantly, to aggressively accelerate "China Plus One" supply chain diversification plans. The new agreements with ASEAN and South Korea make this U.S. directive even clearer.

4- Comprehensive Risk Management - From Operations to Finance:

Cash Flow Crisis: This is the silent but most dangerous risk. U.S. importers awaiting refunds from CBP should immediately build financial scenarios that do not include this cash source.

New Tariff Compliance: The truck tariff rules (effective Nov 1) require preparation now. U.S. importers must urgently work with suppliers to gather detailed data on localization rates to prepare for the new, complex declaration process.

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