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Thursday, 28/08/2025, 08:59 (GMT +7)
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Linerlytica: To Balance Market, Scrapping in Next 4 Years Must Equal Last 25 Combined
Amid continuously falling spot rates, Linerlytica warns that the massive newbuild orderbook is forcing the container shipping industry to ramp up scrapping on an unprecedented scale to avoid an overcapacity crisis.
Old ships being scrapped (Photo: The LoadStar / Phaata)
The global container shipping market remains in the red as spot freight rates have fallen for the 11th consecutive week. Hopes for a rate recovery in September are fading fast as carriers remain hesitant to cut capacity to match the decline in demand. More alarmingly, booking volumes over the past two weeks have dropped between 5% and 20% on the Transpacific, Asia-Europe, and Latin American routes.
Although the withdrawal of 11 U.S.-sanctioned vessels from the market has pushed the idle fleet to a 15-month high, this has not cooled down the very tight charter market. This coming October could be a decisive turning point, as carriers will be forced to implement aggressive capacity cuts to prevent a total collapse of freight rates.
Against this backdrop, Intra-Asia rates have proven more resilient. Interim results for the first half of 2025 show a clear advantage for carriers focused on this market.
The shortage of charter tonnage and the relatively small newbuild orderbook in the feeder segment have shielded Intra-Asia carriers from the fierce rate war happening on the long-haul routes. However, it remains to be seen whether this stability can last until the end of the year.
Scrapping in Next 4 Years Must Equal the Last 25 Combined
According to data from Linerlytica, only 12 container ships totaling 8,465 TEU have been scrapped so far this year. Additionally, six other vessels were lost at sea or converted for other uses.
Source: Linerlytica
Despite the low rate of vessel deletions, a monumental challenge lies ahead. The rapidly swelling orderbook will need to be balanced by a dramatic increase in the scrapping of older ships. Linerlytica estimates that at least 4.5 million TEU will need to be removed from the market by 2030.
This figure is equivalent to the total capacity that has been scrapped over the past 25 years combined. This is an immense pressure, requiring the maritime industry to take decisive action to rebalance supply and demand and avoid a prolonged overcapacity crisis.
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