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Lunar New Year 2025: Forecast of more blank sailings on Asia-North America West Coast (NAWC)
The Lunar New Year 2025 forecast is set to see record capacity increases on the Asia-North America West Coast trade, with historically low vessel availability and uncertainty surrounding the rollout of new shipping networks..webp)
The Lunar New Year (Tet) in 2025 will fall on January 29, just over three weeks away. This coincides with the official launch of new shipping alliance networks a few days before the official launch. While Lunar New Year typically causes significant supply chain disruptions (due to pre-announced cancellations due to a sharp drop in demand), the termination of existing alliance services and the rollout of new services could exacerbate this impact.
Capacity growth far exceeds actual demand
On the Asia-North America West Coast trade, when looking at capacity over the 4-week period around Chinese New Year (including the week of the Lunar New Year and the 3 weeks after) in 2025 and comparing it to previous years, there is a very strong increase in capacity that cannot be explained by current demand growth factors.
The capacity deployed during this 4-week period reached nearly 1.34 million TEUs – the highest level ever recorded, even surpassing the peak demand period in 2021. This is a growth of 33.3% compared to the previous year and 34.1% compared to the period 2016-2019.
Record low blank sailings
In terms of blank sailings, carriers have so far scheduled a capacity reduction of 9.0%, the lowest level in the analyzed period. This is in stark contrast to the 22.8% rate in 2024 and the average decline of 18.3% between 2016 and 2019. By comparison, even in 2021 – when demand was high due to the pandemic – the empty rate was higher at 10.7%.
Normally, this would result in carriers announcing more empty sailings in the coming weeks, as they are unlikely to be satisfied with the current surplus capacity. This could be similar to 2023 and 2024, when many sailings were cut close to Tet.
Unknown factors from new networks
However, another potential factor is the rollout of new networks by MSC, Gemini Cooperation and Premier Alliance. This creates uncertainty, as carriers may prioritize the introduction of vessels in new networks, rather than implementing capacity cuts as usual.
See more:
- International shipping and logistics market update - Week 2/2025
- Trans-Pacific Container Rates Forecast to Rise Ahead of New US Tariffs
- Container Freight Rates Could Fall as US Port Strikes Averted
- Early Tet demand continues to put pressure on container rates on Asia-US trade
- Growing demand could drive up air freight costs for shippers by 2025
- Maersk: Lunar New Year, labor disputes and port congestion to challenge European shipping market in 2025
Source: Phaata.com (via Sea-Intelligence)
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