Maersk forecasts container volume growth but profit decline in 2025

Maersk forecasts a 4% increase in container volume in 2025 but profits could fall sharply due to rising operating costs and market volatility.

maersk container vessel Maersk container ship (Photo: PTP)

Despite continuing global uncertainties, Maersk forecasts a strong 4% growth in the container market in 2025 and the company will maintain a growth rate in line with the market. Maersk gave a positive outlook for 2025 after noting that 2024 was the third-best financial year in its history.

Entering 2024, Maersk issued a cautionary note due to market disruptions and a sharp decline in freight rates in the second half of 2023. Faced with challenges from tensions in the Red Sea, rising operating costs and the risk of a global recession, Maersk and its competitors predicted a difficult year. However, the reality is that all three of the company's main business segments performed well, benefiting from strong freight rates, high demand and effective cost control.

Yesterday, February 6, 2025, when announcing its 2024 financial results, Maersk beat analysts' expectations with earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) rising 65% to $6.5 billion. Revenue from ocean shipping reached more than $37 billion for the year, while total revenue from all business segments was close to $55 billion. Despite the need to bypass Africa, which increased distances traveled and fuel costs, Maersk managed to keep operating costs under control and benefited from higher freight rates.

“Our ability to navigate shifting circumstances and ensure steady supply chains for our customers was put to the test throughout 2024,” said Vincent Clerc, CEO of A.P. Moller – Maersk. “We successfully capitalized on increased demand while enhancing productivity and rigorously managing costs — all of which contributed to our strong financial performance.”

In a press conference, Clerc played down the tariff issues, stressing that the market outlook would depend more on consumer response and shipping demand. For the shipping industry, he noted that the imbalance between supply and demand continues as new, larger vessels are delivered. However, he said that strong market demand could help offset much of the pressure from increased supply.

The Red Sea and its impact on the market remains one of the biggest variables, and like other major carriers, Maersk continues to reroute traffic around Africa. On the bright side, Clerc said that the market could recover by mid-2025, but if capacity continues to increase, freight rates could fall, pushing Maersk’s profits to the low end of its forecast range. However, if the return to the Red Sea is delayed until later in the year, Maersk believes the market will remain strong and the company could hit the high end of its forecast.

Given the current uncertainties and "considerable macroeconomic" issues, Maersk forecasts a sharp decline in profits in 2025. In the worst-case scenario, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) could fall to $6 billion, half of what it was in 2024. In the best-case scenario, EBITDA could reach $9 billion, still lower than in 2023.

Despite the declining profit outlook, investors remain optimistic about Maersk’s performance. Shares rose as much as 10% during the trading session and ended the day up more than 6%. Maersk is seen as an important indicator not only for the shipping industry but also for the global economy and trade as a whole.

Maersk’s management highlighted the company’s ability to adapt to a challenging 2025. While the company remains committed to its long-term strategy, it is also facing significant risks as it ends its alliance with MSC Mediterranean Shipping and enters a difficult transition period with its new route network. Much of the first half of 2025 will be focused on transitioning to the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd, implementing a “hub-and-feeder” model on its main routes. The goal is to improve schedule reliability to 90%, creating a competitive advantage and supporting higher rates through stable service.

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