Maersk: Lunar New Year, labor disputes and port congestion to challenge European shipping market in 2025

Maersk forecasts major challenges for the European shipping market in 2025, from Lunar New Year, labor disputes to port congestion, while also implementing major network reforms.

Maersk container vessel

Source: Maersk

The Lunar New Year, which begins on January 29, 2025, is expected to impact global shipping trends, although the impact may not be as large as in previous years, according to Maersk's December European market update. The company said many businesses have adopted "planned resilience" strategies by spreading shipping activity evenly throughout the year. The first months of 2025 will bring unique challenges and opportunities for the shipping industry.

The Lunar New Year holiday typically has a major impact on global shipping as factories in China shut down across the board, with production slowing down three weeks before and resuming in mid-February. Businesses typically rush to ship cargo before China goes on holiday, pushing up freight rates.

“Next year, however, there remains a question as to how major an impact Chinese New Year will have on shipping due to businesses advancing cargo throughout the year in acts of ‘planned resilience’,” the update notes.

In 2025, Maersk will make major changes to its network, ending its 10-year 2M alliance with Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) to form a new partnership called Gemini with Hapag-Lloyd. Scheduled to launch in February next year, the “Network of the Future” will adopt an innovative “hub and spoke” model, aiming for 90% service reliability compared to the current industry average of 53%. A key part of the change will be the replacement of Felixstowe with London Gateway as the UK’s main port for Asia-Europe trade.

“Heading into 2025, we’re seeing significant operational adjustments across European terminals,” Maersk’s market update said, with performance diverging across key locations. While Bremerhaven remains stable, ports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg are experiencing increased berthing density, leading to a need to expedite cargo clearance.

Labor issues in the US could also have a ripple effect on European shipping, with negotiations between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance running until January 15, 2025. Talks have been hampered by automation initiatives, with the risk of strikes threatening to disrupt traditional shipping routes.

As part of its end-to-end logistics strategy, Maersk reported strong growth in airfreight, with global spot rates up 25% compared to 2023. While Europe maintained its position as the top import destination, routes from the Middle East and South Asia saw a significant 73% increase.

Weather conditions remain a key factor for shipping in Europe, with Adriatic ports experiencing strong winds and similar conditions forecast across the continent.

In another development, China has implemented new regulations from December 1, 2024, controlling the export of dual-use items. The new Export Control List identifies approximately 700 goods and technologies that have potential for both civilian and military applications. The new framework integrates with existing export control rules to simplify licensing, standardize controls, and enhance oversight of high-tech industries such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence. Companies can avoid penalties and maintain smooth operations by taking proactive steps to comply with the more stringent regulations.

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