Maersk Restarts Test Voyages Through Red Sea

Danish shipping giant Maersk has executed its first voyage through the Red Sea in nearly two years, marking a cautious exploratory step as a ceasefire in Gaza kindles hope for restoring the vital Asia-Europe maritime artery.

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Danish shipping carrier Maersk announced on Friday that one of its vessels successfully transited the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for the first time in nearly two years. This move comes as shipping lines weigh a return to this paramount trade corridor connecting Asia and Europe.

The company stated that while there are no firm plans to fully reopen the route, they will implement a "stepwise approach towards gradually resuming navigation" via the Suez Canal and Red Sea. Maersk declined to provide specific details on its subsequent plans.

Context and Industry Caution

Maersk and its competitors, including Germany's Hapag-Lloyd, have been forced to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope (Africa) since December 2023. This decision followed attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea by Houthi rebels in Yemen, actions the group claimed were in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.

The Suez Canal is the fastest route linking Europe and Asia. According to Clarksons Research, prior to the attacks, this route accounted for approximately 10% of total global seaborne trade.

Meanwhile, French carrier CMA CGM has performed limited transits via the Suez Canal when security conditions permitted, and other operators are sounding out similar resumption plans.

Commenting on the general market sentiment, Nikos Tagoulis, an analyst at Intermodal Group, said: "Most carriers appear to be adopting a wait-and-see approach, monitoring developments, and any meaningful reopening would likely unfold gradually."

Hopes from the Ceasefire

Maersk's potential return to the Suez Canal could send ripples through the shipping industry, where freight rates have surged because the alternative route (Cape of Good Hope) adds weeks to transit times between Asia and Europe.

A recent ceasefire in the Gaza conflict has rekindled hopes for normalizing traffic in the Red Sea, though analysts still note the fragility of this truce.

Simon Heaney, senior manager of container research at Drewry Shipping Consultants, forecasted: "By the end of 2026, we estimate things will start to look like they were before the Houthis attack started. The risk level has reduced, so they're prepared to test the waters. But the Houthis aren't particularly reliable."

Testing Does Not Mean Network Overhaul

Maersk confirmed that one of its smaller vessels, the Maersk Sebarok, completed the initial test voyage on Thursday and Friday, while emphasizing that no additional sailings are currently planned.

The carrier made its stance clear: "Whilst this is a significant step forward, it does not mean that we are at a point where we are considering a wider East-West network change back to the trans-Suez corridor."

Regarding market impact, Niels Rasmussen, chief shipping analyst at shipowner association BIMCO, predicts that a widespread resumption of Suez Canal transits could lead to a 10% reduction in vessel demand (due to shorter sailing distances).

He noted in a report published Thursday: "The possibility of a return to Suez Canal routings looms large over the market outlook."

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