Maersk's Q3 2025 Profit Beats Expectations, But Warns of Q4 Loss on Oversupply Pressure

Maersk reports $2.7B Q3 2025 EBITDA and raises full-year guidance, but warns its ocean segment will be loss-making in Q4 due to falling rates and new vessel oversupply, sending shares tumbling.

Maersk-container-vessel-at-sea-port

Shipping giant Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) today (Thursday, Nov. 6) reported better-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results, but simultaneously warned that falling ocean freight rates will push its ocean container business into a loss for the fourth quarter, sending the company's shares tumbling.

Maersk, widely seen as a barometer for global trade, registered strong container demand, particularly driven by exports from China, despite concerns over negative impacts from U.S. administration tariff policies. However, the Danish transport and logistics group also highlighted concerns about overcapacity in the shipping market as a major risk to profitability.

“All the talk about de-globalisation, that is not what is happening now,” Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc told reporters, dismissing concerns of a major shift in global trade patterns and noting a rise in the number of Chinese companies exporting goods.

Warning of Strong Demand and Future Instability

Despite the strong current demand, Clerc warned of impending instability, stemming mainly from the massive wave of newbuild vessels set to enter the market.

“The big question is what is going to happen in the next three years in shipping. There is a huge order book and huge uncertainty in the market,” Clerc said.

Maersk's shares traded 4% lower following the comments, as investors were disappointed that the company only narrowed its guidance range instead of significantly raising its full-year outlook.

Q3 Results and Adjusted Guidance

A.P. Moller – Maersk A/S reported strong financial results in Q3 2025, reflecting operational performance, disciplined cost control, and growth across all business segments. Based on these results, Maersk has adjusted its full-year 2025 forecast, raising the floor of its guidance.

• Revenue: $14.2 billion

• EBITDA: $2.7 billion

• EBIT: $1.3 billion

The company has now raised its 2025 global container demand growth forecast to around 4%, up from the previous 2-4%. Maersk said imports were driven by Europe, Africa, Latin America, and West Central Asia, while volumes to North America fell, particularly shipments from China to the United.

Despite the positive Q3 2025 results, Clerc expressed caution about Q4, saying that more new container ships entering the market could further depress freight rates, which had already fallen below Maersk's break-even level during Q3.

Vincent Clerc, CEO of Maersk, said: "We have delivered a strong third quarter across our business. Our performance reflects our ability to execute and continuously improve, as well as the trust customers place in us. The new East-West network has strengthened our Ocean performance, delivering industry-leading reliability, higher volumes and lower costs. Terminals achieved another record quarter with strong volume growth, and Logistics & Services continued to enhance profitability. As market conditions fluctuate, we are well positioned to help our customers adapt and maintain stability across their supply chains.”

Detailed Segment Results

• Ocean: The Gemini Cooperation helped drive a 7% year-on-year volume growth. Segment EBIT increased to $567 million (compared to $229 million in Q2).

• Logistics & Services: Profitability improved, with EBIT increasing to $218 million (compared to $175 million in Q2).

• Terminals: Achieved a record quarter with the highest-ever volume, revenue, and profit, posting 8.7% volume growth and 89% yard utilization. Segment EBIT jumped to $571 million (compared to $461 million in Q2).

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