Navigating 2026 Volatility: Major Forwarders Restructure Strategies

Amidst a volatile market and geopolitical risks, global freight forwarders are aggressively preparing for 2026 by pivoting to non-US trade lanes, tightening cost controls, and ramping up AI investment to optimize performance.

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Freight forwarders are entering the new year preparation phase with a strategy focused on expanding into new trade lanes, cutting operational costs, and increasing investment in technology. This follows a third quarter described as a period of overcapacity and weakened demand, as US de minimis rules ended and the trend of inventory front-loading cooled down.

Forecasts for Q4 present a rather muted picture. Some forwarders have no expectations for an air freight peak season, while others anticipate only a short, minor spike. However, depending on the outcome of the year-end shopping season and replenishment needs, forwarder revenues and profits could see improvement in late Q4 and early 2026 if market capacity tightens.

Nevertheless, demand from US manufacturers is expected to remain gloomy until at least the end of the first quarter of 2026. US manufacturing indices have remained below 50 – the threshold indicating contraction – for most of 2025 due to the complex geopolitical landscape.

Focusing on Specialized Verticals

In this challenging environment, industry heavyweights like Kuehne+Nagel and Expeditors International have found success by focusing on specific verticals. Kuehne+Nagel is benefiting from perishables and semiconductors, while Expeditors is concentrating on technology, pharmaceuticals, and aerospace.

Expeditors' management shared in their Q3 earnings report: “We also continue to benefit from the significant investments being made by our technology customers in artificial intelligence infrastructure.”

Trade Lane Shifts: Dodging Tariff Risks

Beyond specialization, forwarders are also pivoting toward new non-US trade lanes to avoid the tariff "roller coaster" and complex customs procedure changes.

Tobias Meyer, CEO of DHL Group, commented on this trend during the Q3 earnings call in early November: “I think most notably that was visible in the September export figures of China, where trade to the US was down 27%, but you had double-digit growth in the trade with Southeast Asia, with the trade of Europe as well, and particularly the trade to the Middle East and Africa was growing a lot, Latin America as well.”

Meyer added: “These being long-haul trades and that compensating for some of the decoupling that we see as it relates to the US, which clearly has a lower share of participation in global trade as is increasingly replaced by China as the most important trading partner for many countries in the world.”

However, Expeditors International remains an exception thanks to its traditional strength in customs brokerage services in the US. Their recent earnings report noted: “All of our businesses within this category [customs brokerage] continued to generate strong growth... The products and services in this group tend to be more stable than those in our air and ocean businesses. Our customs brokerage business continues to deliver strong growth, given the high demand for our services due to the dynamic trade environment.”

Cost Control and "Digital Agents"

Entering 2026, cost control is a top priority. DSV, in the process of integrating DB Schenker, plans to adjust capacity and its cost base as necessary. Meanwhile, Kuehne+Nagel has announced layoffs and cuts to facility-related costs.

Beyond cuts, Kuehne+Nagel is looking into applying Large Language Models (LLMs). CEO Stefan Paul stated the company is reviewing: “...large language models and digital agent capabilities...” and “will further identify areas where we can leverage digital agents, which should help us to reduce our cost to serve.”

The trend of AI adoption is also being pushed by C.H. Robinson to automate tasks, freeing employees to focus on higher-value strategic work, according to CEO David Bozeman.

2026 Outlook: Volatility is the "New Normal"

Early forecasts for 2026 indicate that volatility will be the norm rather than the exception. Tariff tensions have temporarily subsided, but the road ahead remains unstable due to high borrowing costs, shifting fiscal policies, and rising geopolitical risks.

Concluding the issue, David A. Hackett, CFO of Expeditors International, shared the company's direction: “We are focused on aligning our operating cost structure with a lower growth environment, while continuing to make strategic investments in high return areas to drive sustainable, profitable, and capital efficient growth.”

In reality, most leading global freight forwarders will likely follow this path as 2026 approaches.

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