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Newbuilding prices forecast to slow this year
The latest forecast from BRS shows that newbuilding prices will slow this year due to a drop in orders and China's increased capacity.
A new ship under construction. Photo: Wilhelmsen/Phaata
Although the shipbuilding industry has the potential to enter a new growth cycle to replace the large number of ships delivered between 2005 and 2010, brokerage firm BRS predicts new building prices will slow this year.
"Shipyards will suffer from a slowdown in ordering, even as additional shipbuilding capacity comes on stream," said Gilbert Walter, co-chairman and CEO of BRS.
Walter wrote the introduction to BRS's 173-page annual overview, one of the best market reports in the shipping industry. He admits that he held off writing his commentary until the last minute, as the shipping market forecast has never been more unpredictable.
"Much like the start of 2025, the remainder of the year is shaping up to be just as unpredictable – a landscape ripe for asset play. Older ship values will continue to weaken, and shipbuilding prices will stall," Walter said.
In the shipbuilding sector, BRS points out that in 2024, the average delivery time for available capacity will have been more than four years. The scarcity of capacity has prompted many Chinese shipyards to increase capacity.
BRS assesses that China is entering a new phase in its shipbuilding expansion, nearly 20 years after the boom that made it the world's leading shipbuilding nation. Many new shipyards have been inaugurated or restarted, while many existing ones are undergoing expansion.
BRS estimates that when the expansion is complete, it will add about 200 ships per year to global capacity, taking total capacity from 1,500 to 1,700 ships per year.
Although new bids remain high, they have eased slightly recently, according to data from Clarksons Research.
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Source: Phaata.com (According to Splash247)
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