November Air Cargo Demand Grows, But E-commerce Shows Signs of Stalling

Xeneta’s November data shows air cargo demand rose 5%, yet rates fell 5% due to pressure from market share competition. More concerningly, the e-commerce sector is showing signs of leveling off ahead of a challenging 2026.

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The air freight market continued to benefit from buoyant demand levels in November, but e-commerce - the primary growth driver in recent years - is beginning to show signs of sputtering.

Latest figures from data provider Xeneta show that in November, air cargo volumes increased by 5% year-on-year. Available capacity also rose by a corresponding 5%, keeping the load factor flat at 63%. However, the average air freight rate fell by 5% to $2.73/kg.

This demand uptake is attributed to traditional shippers sticking to their annual shipping cycles, along with a better understanding of the reality of U.S. trade tariffs (averaging 10-12%, far lower than the previously threatened 30-100% levels).

Xeneta assesses that falling rates despite rising demand suggest carriers are likely racing for market share and trading off pricing discipline.

Across all major trade lanes, spot rates in November were lower compared to a year ago. In particular, rates from Southeast Asia to both Europe and North America were hit hard.

“This likely reflects a combination of increased carrier capacity deployed to chase nearing 50% demand growth, particularly for inbound North America, and softer volumes linked to e-commerce de minimis restrictions affecting key transit hubs in Northeast Asia,” Xeneta noted.

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Signs of an E-commerce Slowdown

Looking ahead, Xeneta is pessimistic about the outlook for next year as U.S. tariff hikes begin to reflect in consumer prices and e-commerce growth weakens.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s Chief Airfreight Officer, said: "After two years in which the growth of air cargo has been so reliant on e-commerce, there is now a question mark over demand for cargo capacity in the coming year."

He added: "I doubt the global economic concerns will greatly impact the likes of Temu because of the ability of China’s factories to produce stuff at a very low cost for consumers willing to buy them, but the big question for the air cargo industry is whether China’s e-commerce volumes to the world can keep on growing as they have been?"

"The indicators suggest it will be very difficult to maintain - and we’re already starting to pick up on flattish growth of e-commerce year on year, which is not something we’ve seen in the last two years."

Van de Wouw pointed out that after 27 consecutive months of near 40% growth, China’s total cross-border e-commerce sales went flat in October. Strong expansion into Europe (+47%) was overshadowed by declines to the rest of Asia (-3%) and a severe 51% drop in e-commerce volumes to the U.S. in the post-de minimis tightening environment.

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EU Regulatory Pressure and 2026 Outlook

Next year, the European Union (EU) is also planning to tighten tax exemptions for low-value parcels. However, Van de Wouw noted:

"Such measures are unlikely to materially suppress demand, considering their marginal impact on cost in comparison to alternatives for consumers. A greater impact on air cargo demand would come from any changes that slow down the supply chain or introduce hefty extra fees."

Xeneta forecasts low single-digit air freight demand growth (2-3%) for the coming year, with continued pressure on rates.

"We expect supply to grow more than demand in 2026, and that will have an impact on rates. I also do not think low, single-digit demand growth will satisfy the appetite and ambition of freight forwarders, especially the listed ones that need to grow much faster in the market."

"So, the only way to do that is to grab market share, which would place a further downward pressure on rates in favour of shippers."

He concluded: "Shippers are asking us what we think is going to happen and, interestingly, we’re also starting to see airlines coming to Xeneta to get a better understanding of shipper rates to validate what forwarders are telling them. Right now, the consensus is the market will do well to achieve demand growth of 2-3% in 2026."

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