Ocean Rates Flatline Despite Falling Volumes, Challenging Carrier GRI Efforts

Transpacific container rates held steady this past week even as volumes fell, posing a major challenge to carriers' attempts to implement a September General Rate Increase (GRI) amid growing overcapacity.

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Transpacific container rates remained nearly unchanged in the most recent week, even as freight volumes fell across most major trade lanes. This development is challenging carriers' plans to implement a General Rate Increase (GRI).

According to the Freightos Baltic Index for the week ending August 29, rates from Asia to U.S. West Coast ports held steady at $1,700 per FEU (40-foot container) and $2,700 per FEU to East Coast ports.

However, the market is showing signs of volatility. "Daily rates to start this week, though, jumped up $400- $500 per FEU on both lanes, possibly reflecting carrier attempts at introducing September GRIs (general rate increases," said Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos. "Demand, space and rate trends of the last few weeks suggest it will be difficult for carriers to push these rate bumps through, though more blanked sailings are being announced as Golden Week approaches."

Golden Week (October 1-8) is a major holiday in China and is typically a lull for the shipping industry. In response, carriers are increasing their blank sailings. Carrier MSC has announced six blank sailings on its Asia-Europe routes around the holiday, a move that observers suggest could signal an early end to the peak season on this trade.

Data from SONAR on inbound booked TEU volumes to U.S. ports shows that volumes in the past week rose by a slight 0.17%, but are down 9.35% compared to July and a full 17.97% year-over-year. One notable exception is Vietnam, with volumes still up 4.88% YoY.

Levine continued his analysis of the rate context: "Even if successful though, those higher rate levels would be well below the West Coast peak season level of $7,000- $8,000 per FEU seen last year. Those rates would also still be lower than at any point last year, with the slow season low for the year at about $3,000 per FEU in April 2024. These year-on-year comparisons, with Red Sea diversions still in place, likely point to growing overcapacity already putting downward pressure on rates."

The situation in the Red Sea remains unstable, leading most major carriers to remove the Suez Canal route from their schedules for this year.

On other routes, Asia-North Europe rates continue to cool off from their July and August highs of $3,400/FEU. According to Freightos, rates on this lane fell 7% to $2,841/FEU last week, while Asia-Mediterranean rates dipped 2% to about $3,000/FEU.

Levine concluded that the core factor dominating the market is overcapacity: "That these rates are also beneath the year lows for 2024 when Red Sea diversions were attributed with causing the highly elevated price baseline, likewise suggests fleet growth is contributing to overall lower rates year on year, even as carriers continue to order more ships."

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