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Wednesday, 01/10/2025, 15:21 (GMT +7)
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October Air Cargo Market Under Strain: A Convergence of Peak Demand and Supply Chain Disruptions
Dimerco's October report warns the global air cargo market is facing mounting pressure from a combination of peak season demand, supply chain disruptions, and shifting trade policies..webp)
Air freight markets across Asia, Europe, and North America are facing increasing pressure this October, as rising seasonal demand converges with supply chain disruptions caused by weather, trade policy changes, and infrastructure challenges. This is the assessment from Dimerco Express Group's October 2025 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report.
Demand growth is being driven by exports of semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) products, and consumer electronics from Southeast Asia. Meanwhile, the supply chain is being squeezed by several factors:
• Rail disruptions on China–Europe corridors.
• Factory closures during China’s Golden Week.
• Lingering delays related to Typhoon Ragasa, which hit the Pearl River Delta region and Hong Kong in late September, forcing mass flight cancellations and creating backlogs at major hubs.
Hotspots in Key Markets
• Taiwan & South Korea: Demand from high-tech and AI shipments remains stable, however, capacity on routes to Penang, Hanoi, and Jakarta is constrained. Demand in South Korea is also up slightly, with tight capacity to Singapore and Penang.
• China & Hong Kong: Demand to Europe is rising as shippers avoid rail services affected by the Belarus border closure. The reallocation of flights for Apple product launches has reduced available capacity to Southeast Asia. Rates to the U.S. are elevated due to Amazon Prime Day volumes.
• Southeast Asia (Vietnam & Thailand): Capacity is tight due to e-commerce and peak season shipping.
• North America & Europe: In the U.S., a modal shift from ocean to air freight is straining flight capacity. In Europe, heightened geopolitical risks could lead to flight cancellations and fare increases.
Macro Policy and Market Outlook
On the policy front, U.S. trade reviews under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and tighter controls on transshipment goods are shaping logistics strategies. Companies are advised to prepare thorough compliance documentation.
Global manufacturing data also shows cautious optimism. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in August, the first expansion since mid-2024. However, international trade flows remain sluggish.
Dimerco expects October to remain challenging as factors like the Golden Week factory shutdowns, adverse weather, and changing trade rules converge. Higher air freight rates and congestion at major hubs seem unavoidable. The company advises shippers to plan ahead, diversify their shipping options, and prepare for longer lead times to mitigate the risk of delays and shortages.
See more:
- Hapag-Lloyd and DHL Partner to Decarbonize Ocean Freight with Sustainable Fuels
- COSCO schedules: Vietnam - North America in Oct 2025
- SITC updates Vietnam-Intra Asia sailing schedules in Oct 2025
- Trump's 25% Tariff on Imported Trucks Heightens Supply Chain Risks
- Global Container Rates Have Fallen to Pre-Red Sea Crisis Levels
- International Shipping and Logistics Market Update - Week 39/2025 | Phaata
- U.S. Tariffs Reshape Air Cargo Flows
- Typhoon Ragasa Snarls Far East Ports as Asia-Europe Rates Continue to Fall
- Pre-Golden Week Blank Sailings Accelerate, Revealing Divergent Alliance Strategies
- UNCTAD: Global Maritime Transport Faces Major Volatility Amid Tariffs and Geopolitical Conflict
- Global Container Market Diverges: Tariffs 'Sink' U.S. Trades, While Other Routes Remain Strong
- The Air Cargo Paradox: Positive Demand Growth, But a Future 'Constrained' by a Freighter Shortage
- CMA CGM Boosts UK Intermodal Network with Acquisition of Rail Freight Leader Freightliner
- Ahead of New USTR Port Fees, COSCO Pledges to Maintain Stable Service in U.S. Market
Source: Phaata.com (According to Maritime Gateway)
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