Port of Los Angeles Forecasts Slight Dip in 2026 Volumes

Executive Director Gene Seroka forecasts a single-digit decline in 2026 import volumes for the Port of Los Angeles due to elevated inventory levels following a wave of frontloading. However, 2025 remains recorded as one of the three most successful years in the port's history.

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Port of Los Angeles

The Port of Los Angeles is unlikely to see a severe drop in cargo volumes in 2026, but a slight downward correction is inevitable. This assessment was made by Gene Seroka, the port's Executive Director, during a press briefing on December 16.

According to Seroka, the port expects to record a single-digit decrease in total import throughput compared to 2025. The main cause stems from high inventory levels after months of shippers actively frontloading cargo to avoid supply chain risks.

Inventory Pressure and Replenishment Strategy

Although Seroka assessed current inventory levels as "nothing to be nervous about," the numbers remain elevated. He also cited the National Retail Federation's (NRF) forecast for historic holiday sales reaching over one trillion dollars as a key balancing factor.

Commenting on the upcoming pivotal moment for the supply chain, Seroka said: “We’ll come in after the holiday season and see what inventories look like. Once again, retailers don’t want to start doing deep discounts on products after the holiday season, so this is going to be a pretty important point in time when it comes to the replenishment concept.”

The port leader also noted that shippers are currently not cancelling many purchase orders (POs) - which were sent to factories in Asia three to four months prior to the scheduled sailing date to Los Angeles. However, the U.S. government shutdown last month caused a data void, stalling purchasing decisions ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday.

Even so, Seroka remains cautiously optimistic: “I’m still feeling okay, overall.”

The Numbers: Short-Term Dip but Solid Year

According to the port's press release, in November, the Port of Los Angeles handled 782,249 TEUs, down 12% year-over-year (YoY). Specifically:

• Imports: Reached 406,421 TEUs, down 11% YoY.

• Exports: Reached 113,706 TEUs, down 8% YoY.

• Empty Containers: Handled 262,122 TEUs, down 13% compared to 2024.

However, year-to-date (YTD), the port has handled nearly 9.5 million TEUs, up 1% from the previous year. Seroka proudly affirmed the port's standing this year: “Even with all the trade uncertainty, we will finish 2025 at over 10 million TEUs, placing this year firmly in our top 3 best years of all time.”

Challenges from Trade Policy

Despite the high cargo volumes, Seroka noted that the port is facing negative impacts from retaliatory tariffs and trade agreements affecting U.S. agricultural exports and manufacturing.

He warned: “This is a headwind we may face for some time to come.”

The industry continues to face significant uncertainty. Shifting tariff policies continue to impact supply chain operations, including ongoing litigation at the Supreme Court regarding the legality of President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs. However, framework agreements being prepared for further legislation could bring some stability in the near future.

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