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Wednesday, 07/07/2021, 09:33 (GMT +7)
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Profits of container shipping lines can reach 100 billion USD in 2021
In a year when container freight rates have tripled, and Drewry forecasts that shipping lines could have full-year profits in excess of $100 billion.
Ocean freight rates increased sharply
Drewry's latest edition of container shipping industry forecasts predicts that shipping lines will report EBITs of $80 billion this year, up from a previous estimate of $35 billion, and if freight rates exceed through expectations for the rest of the year, EBIT can reach 100 billion USD.
Drewry noted that short-term freight rates were pushed to new highs in the second quarter of the year as disruptions to global supply chains worsened.
“We are now getting accustomed to seeing triple-digit annual growth rates for spot rates on most lanes. That these instances are no longer shocking is further proof, if needed, that the market truly is crazy right now,” the analyst said.
Looking at short-term rates and long-term rates under the contract, it shows that for all shipping routes globally, freight rates are expected to increase by about 50% in 2021, up 30% compared to the forecast. Drewry's March issue.
While the $100 billion EBIT for container carriers in 2021 may seem excessive, carriers reported an average EBIT of $27.1 billion in the first quarter of the year, a figure higher than the figure of $25.4 billion for the whole of 2020.
Drewry forecasts freight volumes to continue to grow in the third quarter and through the year-end at around 10% year-over-year growth. “There will still be growth next year, but probably only about half as strong as consumer spending is expected to move back towards services as Covid-related restrictions are lifted," analyst forecast.
Meanwhile, on the supply side with relatively low new shipbuilding orders over the years, the fleet is forecast to grow by 4.4% this year and only 2.8% in 2022, low significantly higher than forecasted demand growth.
Looking at the growth of new shipbuilding contracts by shipping lines over the past eight months, Drewry commented: “Drewry maintains the view that high levels of newbuild contracting for 2023 pose a risk of overcapacity returning to the market during that year, but future supply requirements are heavily clouded by new environment regulations due to become law at the start of 2023, that may or may not see significant chunks of the containership fleet slowdown in order to comply."
Source: Phaata.com (According to SeatradeMaritime)
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