Tariffs Spark Export Rush, But Shippers Hesitate on Air Freight Schedules

The upcoming August 1 U.S. tariff deadline is driving a massive wave of exports from Southeast Asia, yet it's also creating significant hesitation and uncertainty in air cargo supply chain planning.

air-freight-cargo-transport

Dimerco's August Asia Pacific Freight Report states that shippers are uncertain about planning their air freight schedules ahead of the approaching August 1 U.S. tariff deadline, even as they rush to export goods from Southeast Asia to the U.S.

The U.S. has now issued tariff notification letters to a total of 25 countries. These letters specify the country-specific reciprocal tariffs that will be applied from August 1, when the latest tariff pause extension expires.

Dimerco noted that these tariff changes could affect costs, routing, and demand.

"Last minute shifts may trigger market volatility, especially for Asia US and intra-Asia trade lanes."
Kathy Liu, Vice President of Global Sales and Marketing at Dimerco Express Group, said: "With the updated US tariffs taking effect on August 1, shippers are unsure how to plan their shipping schedules."

"This is especially true for key manufacturing and transit hubs such as Singapore, India, Taiwan, and China, where final tariff announcements are still pending."

"At the same time, August is peak typhoon season in South China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the Philippines, which may cause delays and flight rescheduling in these areas."

According to Dimerco's data, export demand from Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines to the U.S. continues to soar ahead of the August tariff deadline.

Malaysia is facing a 25% U.S. tariff, the Philippines 19%, and Thailand 36%. The corresponding rise in export demand to the U.S. has led to increased rates and tight capacity.

There is a similar surge in shipments from Singapore, but the tariff rate to be applied to the country will affect its role as a regional hub in Asia-Pacific and could significantly impact capacity demand, Dimerco said.

In Vietnam, capacity is extremely tight as airlines are prioritizing U.S.-bound flights from major transit stations, Dimerco stated. Since Vietnam lacks direct flights to the U.S., shipments must rely on connecting flights through these hubs.

High demand and limited capacity were also noted from South Korea to the U.S.

Negotiations between China and the U.S. are set to continue, as the two countries now have until August 12 to negotiate tariffs, and this deadline will likely be extended.

According to Dimerco's data, air freight capacity from China to Asia, Europe, and the U.S. is currently generally weak, with stable rates.

However, due to payload reductions caused by high temperatures in Northern China, airline carrying capacity has been significantly reduced, especially on routes to the U.S.

Notably, while demand from Hong Kong to Asia remains strong with tight capacity, demand to the U.S. West Coast is actually decreasing.

In Taiwan, where a tariff rate has not yet been set, the situation is also volatile.

Tech companies in sectors like artificial intelligence continue to drive exports, and air freight rates for direct flights from Taipei to the U.S. are rising.

Although Dimerco highlighted the export surge from Southeast Asia, WorldACD's Market Data report for the period of July 14–20 suggests that the recovery in air cargo volumes from Southeast Asia to the U.S. was due to a rebound from a previous drop in volumes, rather than a pre-tariff spike.

See more: