The U.S. Tariff Storm: Global Air Cargo Industry Reels

The year 2025 has seen the global air cargo industry thrown into crisis by U.S.-China tariff barriers, forcing businesses to change strategies, reallocate fleets, and face a volatile and uncertain future.

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The global air freight industry is facing a period of severe disruption and uncertainty in 2025, driven primarily by new and fluctuating tariffs imposed on trade between the United States and China. These trade barriers have scrambled supply chains, sent costs soaring, and forced businesses across the airfreight ecosystem to rethink their routes, fleet deployments, and operational strategies.

"Everything is in flux regarding the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs, the fluctuating tariff percentage rate, and the length they will or may remain in place (if at all)," said Joey Smith, a Principal at Cassel Salpeter. "The potential loopholes and exemption make planning difficult for all participants, especially manufacturers, distributors, and wholesalers."

Smith noted that companies dependent on transatlantic or intercontinental supply chains have been forced to reconsider everything from inventory management to supplier diversification. "Cargo and last-mile delivery" segment has also been under pressure, he added.

The situation is further complicated by " significant frontrunning by manufacturers (specifically Chinese) to get product to US shores before ‘the pause’ potentially expires," making recent data on air volumes and rates "unreliable as an overall trend." On top of this, "looming overhead from a macro perspective is the prospect for rising inflation and slower growth, as evidenced by consumer sentiment souring and slowing too."

Cost Volatility and a Rethinking of Routes

The tariffs have had a dramatic impact on the air cargo industry, particularly in the e-commerce sector, where cost structures and demand models have changed significantly.

"The elimination of the $800 de minimis exception for Chinese goods, coupled with increased tariffs, is expected to reduce air cargo volumes, especially for low-value e-commerce shipments, which were a major component of Chinese/US traffic," Smith explained. This shift has prompted a re-evaluation of supply chains, with "some e-commerce companies potentially shifting their manufacturing/distribution point of origin to other Asian countries, which may be less affected by tariffs."

Smith added that these shifts have led airlines to reallocate capacity. "We have seen the re-allocation of aircraft from the Chinese/US market to Europe and other regions."

Calling the imposition of tariffs a "black swan event," Smith highlighted its unpredictable nature: "The policy shift is protectionism, which is a major blow to globalism and free trade which made USA the largest country by GDP and the wealthiest nation on earth (despite huge trade deficits). Specifically, the greatest damage is uncertainty, as there appears to be no true policy or well thought out goals."

The consequences extend beyond trade volumes: "Negative implications could include the reduced demand for freighter aircraft in general, slowing the demand for the expansion of freighter aircraft fleets.” Rising costs and delays in obtaining aircraft parts further exacerbate the challenges, and “freighter aircraft has become more dominant versus belly freight of commercial airlines, so the volatility in the freighter marketplace plays an oversized role."

Airlines Adjust Fleet and Network Strategies

The tariffs have caused a notable disruption to one of the most significant global cargo flows—the China-U.S. corridor—forcing airlines to reconsider how they deploy their fleets and plan their networks.

"The traditional airfreight market will not be able to compensate for the decline in e-commerce volumes with the $800 ‘de minimis’ suspension, which was estimated to represent ~1.2 million tons, or over 50% of goods shipped from China to the United States by air," Smith stated. He noted the dramatic shift since 2018, when these shipments accounted for only 5%.

With "de minimis exemptions unlikely to return," major Chinese e-commerce companies like Alibaba, Shein, and Temu are "increasingly looking to ship products in bulk via sea to the U.S. or other warehousing locations instead of making individual shipments by plane direct to consumers."

Smith pointed to moves already underway in the airline industry: "Several Asia-Pacific airlines said, in financial reports covering the period before the tariffs took effect, they would seek to move capacity to other routes to deal with fluctuating demand." For example, "Asia-focused freight forwarder Dimerco this month said several scheduled freighter services were cancelled on the China-U.S. corridor, with some capacity rerouted to Mexico and Latin America."

Approximately 70 freighters have been temporarily parked on Transpacific routes, though some have been redeployed to other markets. Smith sees a silver lining: "New opportunities may be the expansion to additional geographic markets and higher air cargo rates. Alternatively, air freight operators may take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of tariffs by relocating operations to alternative geographic markets."

This could "create new partnerships with countries not subject to the higher tariffs," diversifying transport routes and "increasing business for air freight carriers." "Businesses may become more willing to pay a premium for faster and more reliable air freight/cargo options," Smith explained, adding that these costs would often be shared along the logistics chain and sometimes passed on to the consumer.

Maintenance, Compliance, and Long-Term Impacts

The ripple effects of tariffs extend deep into Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) operations, which face new challenges amid changing customs interpretations.

"It’s too early to tell but suffice it to say that US MROs and aftermarket parts distributors should benefit from the tariff turmoil," Smith said. However, "inconsistencies in applying Customs rules have led to issues and inconsistencies," particularly regarding whether imported parts must be airworthy to qualify for duty-free status. "This is a political hot potato," Smith noted, with potential inflationary impacts throughout the supply chain.

The tariffs have also effectively dismantled the exemptions from the 1980 Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft—a landmark pact that eliminated tariffs on aircraft and parts among major aerospace nations. "Termination of these exemptions raises production costs for aerospace manufacturers and increases procurement costs for airlines, which could pay more for new aircraft and spare parts," Smith said.

Smith was skeptical of hopes that tariffs would reshore aircraft manufacturing to the U.S.: "It’s very unlikely." The aviation industry, still recovering from travel slumps and trade wars, is lobbying for exemptions, fearing disruption to decades of duty-free trade that has supported a $75 billion annual trade surplus. Both Boeing, which relies heavily on exports, and Airbus, with its significant U.S. operations, are vulnerable to rising component costs.

Balancing Rising Costs and Competitive Pressures

U.S.-based cargo airlines face the challenge of both absorbing increased import costs and remaining competitive in the global transport market.

"A fuel price drop can be helpful if demand stays relatively strong, otherwise the prospects are harsh and disruptive," said Smith. One way to reduce costs could be to consolidate air and ocean shipments under a single customs entry, cutting down on brokerage and customs processing fees that are likely to surge as de minimis exemptions end.

Smith highlighted the market's consolidation: "The top 10 cargo carriers represent a significant consolidation in the marketplace of over 2,300 freighters in service, with FedEx the world’s largest with 700 aircraft, followed by UPS, Qatar Airways, Emirates SkyCargo, DHL, Korean Air Cargo, and others."

In this complex environment, carriers must contend not only with tariff shocks but also with shifts in demand, cost pressures, and the ever-evolving expectations of a globalized supply chain.

As these tariff-induced changes reshape the air cargo landscape, businesses, airlines, and logistics providers are all facing unprecedented challenges. "The lack of clear policy direction and unpredictable duration of tariffs create an unstable environment," Joey Smith warned. "Only through adaptation, diversification, and innovation can the sector hope to weather this storm."

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