Transpacific Rates Spike Again, Defying Tariff Risks and Slack Season

The uncertainty that has plagued the global shipping industry this year flared up once again last week - but it may be signaling a welcome turn for carriers as rates unexpectedly climbed.

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Container rates on the Transpacific route posted gains, pausing a continuous decline that had been challenging 2023’s rock-bottom levels.

According to the latest Freightos Baltic Index, rates from Asia to US West Coast ports jumped 18% to $1,687/FEU (40ft container), while rates to the East Coast rose 2% to $3,071/FEU.

Judah Levine, Head of Research at Freightos, said there was more potential good news on the trade front, following a recent series of political hostilities between China and the US.

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng is slated to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week in Malaysia, ahead of President Donald Trump’s convo with President Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of the month.

Beijing and Washington have been playing a Jenga-like game of tariffs and export restrictions. But the US has granted a series of offsets for automobiles and exemptions for other strategic imports, while Trump also recently conceded that the sky-high tariffs are unsustainable.

The weaponization of shipping and port operations continues, though the immediate costs remain limited.

Levine said there were no reports of vessels paying the USTR (United States Trade Representative) port fees that took effect on October 14, and only one Chinese-built vessel is scheduled to call at the Port of Los Angeles this week. However, a retaliatory Chinese vessel tax reportedly cost one US-flagged Matson (NYSE: MATX) container ship $1.7 million to call at the Port of Shanghai.

“Like on the trans-Pacific eastbound, carriers are shifting their deployment of liable vessels to other lanes to avoid the surcharges at China’s ports,” Levine said.

The embargo-like impact from Trump's 145% tariff on Chinese goods from early April to mid-May caused a sharp drop in ocean volumes, Levine noted, and the 100% tariff on November 1 could do the same.

“Now, the typical November slowdown and earlier frontloading would likely be a smaller volume drop compared to April-May,” he said.

On other trades, Asia-North Europe rates climbed 13% to $1,975/FEU, and Asia-Mediterranean rates nudged 1% higher to $2,147/FEU.

“Asia-Europe prices climbed on October GRIs as well, with daily rates this week approaching $2,300 per FEU,” Levine noted. “Daily rates to the Mediterranean [posted] a $200 per FEU increase compared to the last couple weeks.”

Levine added that the rate hikes on European trades are likely due in part to port congestion exacerbated by last week’s strikes at Rotterdam - Europe’s busiest gateway - and Antwerp.

“But rates climbing during low-demand periods for both Asia-Europe and the trans-Pacific has many observers skeptical that prices will remain elevated, though carriers will attempt November GRIs as well,” Levine concluded.

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