U.S. Tariffs Reshape Air Cargo Flows

A new analysis from Aevean shows that U.S. tariff policies are dramatically reshaping air trade routes, with volumes from China to the U.S. declining while Vietnam and Taiwan (China) are seeing explosive growth.

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Air trade routes have changed rapidly this year due to the impact of tariff measures and the United States' decision to end its de minimis policy.

Speaking at the Caspian Air Cargo Summit, Marco Bloemen, a managing director at the consultancy Aevean, highlighted the changes in the air freight market since the beginning of the year. One of the biggest shifts has been the drop in e-commerce volumes from China to the U.S., following the end of the de minimis exemption for China in May.

As a result, low-value e-commerce goods imported by air from China to the U.S. fell by about 40% in July compared to April's levels. Meanwhile, e-commerce platforms are redirecting to other countries, boosting demand in those markets. The share of the China-Europe route has increased from 21% to 27%, while the U.S. market share has fallen from 31% to just 15%.

The Impact of Tariffs: Vietnam and Taiwan (China) are Major Beneficiaries

U.S. tariffs have also had a strong impact on general cargo volumes. From April to July, cargo from China to the U.S. fell by 19% year-over-year. Conversely, volumes from other regions to the U.S. have grown rapidly.

• Taiwan (China): Volumes in the April-July period increased by approximately 119% year-over-year, driven mainly by computer hardware and networking equipment. This increase is equivalent to about 720 widebody freighter flights.

• Vietnam: Volumes over the same period grew by about 93% YoY, led by laptops and apparel. This increase is equivalent to 610 widebody freighter flights. Vietnam has now surpassed China to become the largest U.S. trading partner for laptops.

On the smartphone front, India is now the largest exporter of this commodity to the U.S., having overtaken China in April.

Yield Imbalances and Future Capacity Shortages

These changes are also reflected in the capacity deployment of airlines. Bloemen pointed out that capacity on routes from Asia to Europe and the Middle East has seen double-digit growth, while transpacific and transatlantic capacity has been flat.

The shift in trade flows is also increasing yield imbalances. “From Asia to Europe, back in 2023, there was 1.2 times more flying from Asia to Europe than on the way back and then the yield was 1.6 times as much,” Bloemen explained. “Fast forward to 2025, the weight discrepancy has increased [to 1.3], but the yield discrepancy is going super fast and it is now roughly 2.6 times as much that you have to pay from Asia to Europe as on the way back. And the transpacific is a similar story.”

However, Bloemen also pointed out that total global air cargo volumes are still up 5.2% year-to-date, thanks to front-loading activities and an 18% increase in e-commerce demand.

Finally, Bloemen reiterated concerns about a potential future shortage of widebody freighter capacity. He pointed out that total cargo capacity has barely grown since 2019, and the situation is unlikely to improve this year due to slowing aircraft deliveries.

“We are going to see a shortage of capacity in the years to come,” he concluded.

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