WorldACD: Global Air Cargo Volumes on Track for 4% Growth in 2025

The latest data from WorldACD shows global air cargo volumes in October 2025 rose 4% year-on-year, but average rates still fell 5% due to a shift in trade flows away from the U.S. market.

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Global air cargo volumes are on track to achieve +4% growth for the full year 2025, after chargeable weight in October registered a +4% increase year-on-year (YoY). According to the latest data from WorldACD, the main growth driver came from origin markets in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region, with a +9% (YoY) increase.

WorldACD's analysis this week indicates that for the first 10 months of 2025, average global air cargo volumes were +4% higher than the same period last year, with the Asia-Pacific region alone recording a year-to-date (YtD) increase of +7%.

The Paradox: Volumes Up, Rates Down

On the pricing front, despite the growth in volumes, the average global rate for the first 10 months of this year was nearly equivalent to last year's level. However, on a month-by-month basis, total rates have been in continuous year-on-year decline since May.

October, typically a key peak month, saw a volume recovery with an +8% increase compared to September (MoM), driven by strong growth from North America (+11% MoM), Central & South America (+11%), Europe (+10%), and Asia-Pacific (+8%).

Despite this, the average global rate (including both spot and contract prices) only inched up +1% (MoM) to $2.48/kg. Notably, this rate is still -5% lower than last October; even rates from Asia-Pacific were down -6% (YoY).

Spot rates showed a similar pattern, with the average global spot rate down -4% (YoY).

The Reason for the Discrepancy

The main discrepancy is that the average global rate in October this year was about -5% (YoY) lower, despite volumes being +4% higher.

WorldACD suggests the most significant factor causing this situation is the extremely volatile transpacific air cargo market, where the impact of changes in U.S. import tariffs and de minimis rules is still playing out.

In general, the diversion of Chinese e-commerce volumes away from the U.S. market and toward other international markets—along with the freighter capacity that has shifted with it - is a factor that has been dragging down global average rates since April and May, despite the year-on-year increase in total tonnages.

A Sourcing Shift to the U.S.

Looking at the most volatile market, the Asia-Pacific to U.S. trade, spot rates to the U.S. from China, Hong Kong, and Japan rose for the third consecutive week (as of week 44). However, all three of these rates remain lower than at the same time last year.

A key point of interest is that while overall volumes from Asia-Pacific to the U.S. were still up +7% (YoY) in week 44, this growth did not come from the traditional hubs. Data shows very strong YoY growth from:

• Taiwan (+44%)

• Vietnam (+32%)

• Thailand (+37%)

• Malaysia (+52%)

• Singapore (+51%)

Meanwhile, volumes from China, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea to the U.S. still registered declines, although the deficit narrowed significantly in week 44.

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