EUA Prices Hover Around EUR 82/Tonne in Mid-August: A Key Indicator to Watch for Q4/2026 ETS/FuelEU Surcharges

The movement of EUA prices represents a crucial variable when forecasting ocean carriers' environmental surcharge trends for Q4/2026. However, actual surcharge levels do not fluctuate in real-time alongside spot EUA market prices. Instead, they depend on specific reference windows, calculation methodologies, and each carrier’s individual cost structure.

Meanwhile, Ocean Network Express's (ONE) Q3/2026 Europe Environment Surcharge (EES) schedule for the Asia/Oceania – Northern Europe trade lane is currently set at USD 102/20ft and USD 204/40ft, marking a decrease from the previous quarter.

Key Takeaways:

    - EUA Dec 2026 Futures (ICE Endex): Closed at EUR 81.79/tonne on August 14, 2026, down 1.8% week-over-week (WoW); weekly trading volume reached just 72.4 million tonnes of allowances, the second-lowest weekly figure in 2026.

    - Price Movement: Closed further down at EUR 81.58/tonne on August 17, 2026—the lowest point since August 5. By the morning of August 18 (European time), prices rebounded to EUR 82.05–82.08/tonne according to TradingEconomics, holding 15.30% higher year-over-year (YoY).

    - ONE's Current EES Schedule: Applied to Asia/Oceania to Northern Europe (Dominant leg / main trade direction), current rates stand at USD 102 per 20ft container and USD 204 per 40ft dry container—a decrease of USD 15/20ft and USD 30/40ft (-12.8%) compared to Q2/2026, despite EUA prices touching a six-month high of EUR 86.91 on July 22, 2026.

    - Regional Disparities: Within the same Q3/2026 tariff structure, the Mediterranean trade lane stands at just USD 43/20ft and USD 86/40ft—nearly 2.4 times lower than Northern Europe rate

    - Q4/2026 Schedule (Oct 1 – Dec 31, 2026): Applicable to cargo with a Price Calculation Date after September 30, this schedule has not yet been published by ONE at the time of writing.

European Carbon Market Trades Quietly in Mid-August

The EUA emission allowance market entered mid-August 2026 with relatively subdued liquidity. December 2026 EUA futures closed on August 14 at EUR 81.79/tonne, a 1.8% drop from the end of the previous week, according to Emba Power.

Total weekly trading volume reached 72.4 million tonnes of allowances - less than half the 2026 year-to-date average of roughly 140 million tonnes per week - making it the second-lowest volume week of the year, trailing only Easter week.

The downward trajectory persisted into the August 17 session. The settlement price landed at EUR 81.58/tonne, the lowest since August 5, after trading within an intra-day range of EUR 81.19–82.24/tonne. Daily trading volume stood at 13.9 million tonnes, below the August 2026 daily average of 15.4 million tonnes and substantially lower than the 27.5 million tonnes per day recorded during the same period in 2025, per Emba Power data.

By the morning of August 18 (European time), prices briefly dipped below EUR 81/tonne before staging a recovery. This intraday rebound coincided with an improvement in Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, which rose from 26.3 points in July to 34.2 points in August.

At that junction, EU Carbon Permits - a CFD instrument tracking EUA price movements rather than direct exchange-traded futures - were recorded by TradingEconomics at around EUR 82.05–82.08/tonne, up approximately 0.61% from the previous session.

This price point remains below the six-month peak of EUR 86.91/tonne reached on July 22, 2026. Following that high, several analyst organizations revised their EUA price forecasts downward. A survey of nine institutions published by Reuters on July 31 brought the average forecast down to EUR 79.97/tonne for 2026 and EUR 89.13/tonne for 2027.

ONE's EES Dropped in Q3 Despite Intermittent EUA Surges

The trajectory of ONE’s Europe Environment Surcharge (EES) on the Asia/Oceania – Northern Europe trade demonstrates that carrier environmental surcharges do not move in tandem with real-time market EUA prices.

In Q2/2026, the EES on this route stood at USD 117/20ft and USD 234/40ft. Entering Q3, the surcharge dropped to USD 102/20ft and USD 204/40ft, marking a 12.8% decrease.

This reduction occurred during a period when EUA prices were surging at times, illustrating that a spot EUA price at a single point in time cannot be used to directly extrapolate the surcharge levels currently enforced by ocean carriers.

Prior to this Q3 reduction, the EES on this trade lane had posted four consecutive quarterly increases:

    - Q3/2025: USD 57/20ft and USD 114/40ft

    - Q4/2025: USD 67/20ft and USD 134/40ft (+17.5%)

    - Q1/2026: USD 93/20ft and USD 186/40ft (+38.8%)

    - Q2/2026: USD 117/20ft and USD 234/40ft (+25.8%)

From Q3/2025 to Q2/2026, the EES level surged by approximately 105%.

This aggressive upward trend in earlier quarters occurred as the EU ETS entered a phase of higher compliance obligations. According to ONE, the surrender ratio for EUA allowances escalated from 70% for 2025 emissions to 100% for emissions generated from 2026 onwards. Furthermore, methane (CH_4) and nitrous oxide (N_2 O) were officially integrated into the maritime EU ETS scope starting in 2026.

ONE Integrates UK ETS into EES Starting Q3/2026

Effective July 1, 2026, ONE incorporated compliance costs related to the UK ETS into its EES framework. The carrier stated it would fulfill surrender obligations for UK Allowances (UKAs) covering 100% of verified greenhouse gas emissions under the expanded UK ETS scope, while applying the EES to cargo moving to and from the United Kingdom.

According to ONE, starting in Q3/2026, the EES consolidates cost components associated with the EU ETS, UK ETS, and FuelEU Maritime into a single surcharge, rather than unbundling them into separate line items.

For the Vietnam – EU/UK trade, these environmental surcharges are tied to the regulatory scope and the specific ports of call involved, regardless of whether a vessel navigates via the Suez Canal or reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope.

Under EU ETS regulations, for voyages between a non-EU port and an EU port, 50% of the voyage's emissions fall within the EU ETS scope. For intra-EU voyages between two EU ports, as well as emissions generated while at berth in an EU port, the coverage is 100%.

In 2026, several of ONE’s Asia – Northern Europe services continue to operate via the Cape of Good Hope rather than the Suez Canal. This represents an operational routing decision and does not alter the fundamental principles governing EU ETS emissions coverage.

Q4/2026 Outlook: Awaiting ONE's Updated EES Schedule

At the time of writing, ONE has yet to publish its Q4/2026 EES tariff. The carrier noted that the EES is reviewed quarterly and remains subject to adjustment upon advance notice.

For its Q3/2026 tariff schedule, ONE published the advisory on June 1 with an effective date of July 1. Based on this timeline, early September represents the key window to monitor for updated Q4 EES advisories, rather than attempting to manually calculate a surcharge based on real-time EUA spot prices.

Route-specific variations must also be factored in. In Q3/2026, the EES on the Asia/Oceania – Mediterranean trade stood at USD 43/20ft and USD 86/40ft - roughly 42% of the tariff applied to Northern Europe bound shipments.

This underscores that trade routes, regulatory scope, and carrier-specific surcharge architectures exert a major influence on final surcharge levels, alongside broader EUA allowance price movements.

FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS (FAQ)

Where do EUA prices currently stand, and why are they important for the Vietnam – EU trade?

December 2026 EUA futures on ICE Endex closed at EUR 81.58/tonne on August 17, 2026. As of the morning of August 18 (European time), TradingEconomics recorded benchmark trackers at EUR 82.05–82.08/tonne, roughly 15.30% higher year-over-year. This price serves as a reference baseline when carriers like ONE recalculate quarterly European environmental surcharges for cargo moving to/from the EU and UK, including shipments originating in Vietnam.

What is the current EES surcharge applied by ONE for cargo moving from Vietnam to Europe?

According to the Q3/2026 tariff schedule (effective July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026):

    - Asia/Oceania to Northern Europe (Dominant leg): USD 102 per 20ft dry container and USD 204 per 40ft dry container.

    - Mediterranean Bound Trade: USD 43 per 20ft dry container and USD 86 per 40ft dry container (nearly 2.4 times lower than Northern Europe rates).

(Note: These tariffs are specific to ONE and do not represent a market-wide average.)

Why did the Q3/2026 EES schedule decrease compared to Q2/2026 despite EUA prices previously hitting record highs?

Although spot EUA prices touched a six-month high of EUR 86.91/tonne on July 22, 2026 (early Q3), the Q3/2026 EES tariff (USD 102/204) actually dropped by roughly 12.8% compared to Q2/2026 (USD 117/234). This divergence stems from the fact that ONE does not apply a real-time adjustment formula tied to daily EUA spot fluctuations, opting instead for fixed quarterly indexation.

Has the Q4/2026 EES schedule been published yet?

No. As of August 18, 2026, ONE has not released its EES tariff for Q4/2026 (effective October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026). Based on historical precedent over the past four quarters - where advisories are typically issued 4 to 5 weeks prior to the effective date - the new tariff is expected to be announced between late August and early September 2026.

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Source: Phaata.com 

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